BICOM

The last polls to be published before Tuesday’s elections predict that the Blue and White party has a small lead over the Likud, but Benjamin Netanyahu will find it easier to forming a 61-majority government.

Israel Hayom’s poll predicts that Blue and White will win 5 more seats than Likud (32 to 27), Yediot and Channel 12 News predict that Blue and White will win 4 more seats than Likud (30 vs 26), and Maariv one more seat (28 vs 27). Israel Hayom’s poll predicts that right-wing party Yisrael Beitenu and Arab party Balad-Raam will not win any seats.

All the polls show Netanyahu will find it easier to form a governing coalition, which would include Yisrael Beitenu, United Right, New Right, Kulanu and the right-wing libertarian Zehut party (the only right-wing party yet to commit to join a Netanyahu-led government).

According to BICOM’s aggregate poll from 22 March – 5 April, Blue and White would win 30 seats, Likud 28 seats, Labour 10 seats, Taal-Hadash 7 seats, New Right 6 seats, United Right 6 seats, UTJ 6 seats, Shas 5 seats, Meretz 5 seats, Zehut 5 seats, Yisrael Beitenu 4 seats, United Arab List-Balad 4 seats and Kulanu 4 seats. Benjamin Netanyahu could potentially form a coalition of 64 seats.

Speaking to the Times of Israel, Blue and White party co-leader Yair Lapid said: “There have been 20 governments in Israel’s history. Nineteen of them were formed by the winner [of the most seats]. Only one was not and this case, with Tzipi Livni [at the head of Kadima in 2009] was a very extraordinary case. Basically if you win in a definitive way, you’re going to form the government. This is the way of politics. Can you imagine somebody with three indictments, who lost the election, being asked to form a government? It’s not going to happen.”

Lapid suggested that Likud could quickly remove Netanyahu if his party defeats Likud decisively. He said: “There’s a huge underground bitterness within Likud. One of Bibi’s biggest flaws is that he doesn’t allow anyone to flourish next to him. He’s making sure people are held down to the ground. Nobody likes it. As long as he’s in power they’re going to be cautious about it. But you can hear the first voices [of dissent] coming out of Likud. And they talk to me. The minute he will lose some ground, there will be a reaction.”