BICOM

What happened: The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said Syrian and Russian airstrikes targeted the town of Maaret al-Numan and villages near it, with one hitting close to one of Turkey’s 12 observation posts in Idlib.

• Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met to discuss the situation in Idlib, where Turkish troops have been stationed as part of a buffer zone deal reached with Russia last year.
• Erdogan said it was unacceptable that Syrian forces were “raining death on civilians from the air and land under the pretence of battling terrorism” and complained his troops are in danger. Putin said the two leaders had agreed “additional joint steps” to “normalise” the situation in Idlib, including measures aimed at rooting out “terrorists” there.
• The two leaders also spoke about a potential Turkish purchase of Russia’s Su-35 jet and possible joint work on the new Su-57.
• At the same time, US-backed Kurds have starting withdrawing from the Turkish border. The move is part of a deal with the US and Turkey, which has threatened to launch an assault unless the People’s Protection Units (YPG) pulls back from the border and a “safe zone” is set up.

The Context: After months of heavy bombardment, the Syrian regime and Russian-backed forces launched a ground offensive this month against Idlib, the last major stronghold of rebel forces in Syria.

• Last week, regime forces recaptured Khan Sheikhun and have been massing north of the town in recent days. Yesterday Jihadists and opposition groups attacked regime positions in Khan Sheikhun at dawn that resulted in over 50 deaths on both sides. According to SOHR, the attack was led by the Al-Qaeda-linked Hurras Al-Deen group and another extremist faction, Ansar Al-Deen.
• The new offensive comes despite a deal signed in September last year by Russia and Turkey to avert a full-blown assault on the Idlib region. It was agreed to set up a 15-25km demilitarised zone to separate regime forces from rebel fighters. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said at the time that the deal meant there would be no military operations in the region.
• According to the Washington Post, since regime bombing began in late April, more than 2,000 people have been killed and half a million displaced, with most fleeing further north toward the border with Turkey.

Looking ahead: Russia and Turkey are trying to coordinate action in northern Syria but their respective polices are moving them further apart. Whilst they have agreed steps to tackle militants in northwest Syria and “normalise” the situation there, the Russian-backed advances of Assad’s forces have threatened Ankara’s hopes of preventing a fresh wave of refugees – including fighters – on its southern border.

• Turkey also has 12 military observation points in Idlib in order to prevent a Kurdish zone of influence spanning the whole Syria-Turkey border but at some point will have to negotiate with the Syrian regime to leave. Turkey is concerned that Assad will give the Kurds greater autonomy in northern Syria in return for loyalty.