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Trump hints at increased Iran sanctions

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What happened: Speaking at the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump hinted that sanctions on Iran will increase unless it changes behaviour but Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said he would be prepared to talk about “small changes, additions or amendments” to the nuclear deal if the US lifted sanctions.

  • President Donald Trump called Iran’s regime one of the “greatest security threats facing peace-loving nations”, urging nations not to “subsidise Iran’s bloodlust.” Trump indicated he would increase sanctions on Iran saying: “As long as Iran’s menacing behaviour continues, sanctions will not be lifted. They will be tightened.”
  • President Emmanuel Macron used his speech to restate his support for a return to negotiations between the US and Iran. He said: “Now more than ever is the time for negotiations among Iran, the United States, the signatories of the JCPOA and regional powers, centered on the region’s security and stability.”

Context: The UN General Assembly was seen as a potential opportunity for the US and Iran to defuse tensions, with mood music from the Trump administration – particularly the firing of National Security Advisor John Bolton – suggesting Trump was in favour of a meeting. But attacks on Saudi oil facilities on 14 September diminished that prospect, as did Trump’s fiery rhetoric yesterday. President Macron said it would be a ‘lost opportunity’ if Rouhani didn’t meet Trump in New York.

  • Rouhani held separate talks with the leaders of France, Germany and the UK on Tuesday at UN headquarters.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson invited Rouhani to visit London but called on him to immediately release Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and other dual nationals imprisoned in Iran. He expressed ‘deep concern about Iran’s destabilising activity in the region, including the attacks on the Aramco oil facilities, and insisted this must stop’ according to a Downing Street spokesperson. He also called for a new ‘comprehensive successor deal’ to the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Looking ahead: Trump’s speech indicates that he hasn’t changed position – he is threatening more sanctions, demanding an end to Iranian malign activity but wants to start talks on a new nuclear deal. Rouhani’s indication that he would talk about small changes to the nuclear deal shows some movement but their condition for that – an end to US sanctions – hasn’t changed. Before this week Iran could rely on France, Germany and the UK to defend their corner and maintain their commitment to the nuclear deal. The E3 statement yesterday showed that their patience has run out and they are moving closer to the US position – they blamed Iran for the Saudi oil site attacks, condemned Iran for breaking uranium enrichment limits and are now talking openly about the need for a new nuclear deal, not just minor amendments to the 2015 agreement.