BICOM

What happened: The international community pushed back forcefully against Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria and the ensuing humanitarian and security crisis, although the reactions consisted mostly of sharp diplomatic language and sanctions.

• After ostensibly greenlighting the Turkish move last week, the US Administration has changed course, demanding that Turkey “stop the invasion and implement an immediate ceasefire, and to begin negotiating with Kurdish forces to bring an end to the violence,” as US Vice President Mike Pence said yesterday.
• The US Treasury Department instituted sanctions against Turkey’s Defence and Energy ministries, as well as the corresponding ministers and the Minister of Interior, stating that Turkey’s “actions are endangering innocent civilians, and destabilising the region, including undermining the campaign to defeat ISIS.”
• UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab yesterday urged Turkey “to exercise maximum restraint and to bring an end to this unilateral military action,” adding that it “is not an action we expected from an ally….It is reckless, it is counterproductive and it plays straight into the hands of Russia and indeed the Assad regime.”
• The British government announced that no new military export licenses would be granted for Turkey, adding that they were under “very careful and continual review.” The arms embargo was joined by other European and NATO allies, including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Czech Republic, and Finland.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday that the sanctions were a sign “many NATO allies are very critical and are condemning the military operation in northern Syria.”
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week said that he “strongly condemns the Turkish invasion of the Kurdish areas of Syria and warns against the ethnic cleansing of the Kurds by the Turks and its proxies. Israel is prepared to extend humanitarian assistance to the gallant Kurdish people.”
• Other Israeli politicians overwhelmingly supported Netanyahu’s sentiment, with former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked yesterday saying: “Sanctions against Turkey are just the beginning. It’s time to establish peaceful structures in the region, and a Kurdish state is an important step in that direction.”
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, criticised Turkey yesterday, saying Russia: “Always believed that any military operation in Syrian territory is unacceptable.” Lavrentiev added that Russia wanted to ensure the security of the Syria-Turkey border via the deployment of Syrian government forces – and not the Turkish army – a move already under way with the support of Russian military police units.

Context: Belying the strong rhetoric, American and European sanctions will be of limited scope and impact. The goal as of now appears to be bringing the Turkish offensive to a halt (via a ceasefire), thereby forestalling a greater humanitarian crisis among the Kurdish population and allowing ISIS prisoners to be secured.

• The Trump Administration’s apparent reversal on this issue is a sign of the growing pressure it is under domestically, including from Republican lawmakers. In a speech on the Senate floor, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell slammed the administration for withdrawing from northeastern Syria, indicating it could open the door for an ISIS revival, Russian meddling, Iranian gains up to the border with Israel, and loss of leverage vis-à-vis the Assad regime.
• Senator Lindsey Graham threatened to hold Turkish President Erdogan personally responsible if Turkish forces attacked the Kurdish town of Kobani saying: “My advice to Turkey is to stop before you completely destroy the relationship between the United States and Turkey.”
• Israeli defence analysts and senior opposition politicians view recent events in northern Syria as a major reversal for Israeli interests in general, and Netanyahu’s foreign policy in particular. The abandonment of the pro-Western Kurdish forces and recent public statements by Trump have not instilled confidence that the US is a reliable partner with a long-term commitment to regional security. Viewed from Israel, most of the actors arrayed against it – ISIS, the Assad regime, Iran and its Shia proxies, Turkey, and Russia – all stand to make significant gains.

Looking ahead: In a bid to halt the Turkish offensive and broker a ceasefire deal, Trump dispatched Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien to Ankara, where they are set to hold meetings with Erdogan on Thursday. Separately, Russian President Putin invited Erdogan to Moscow for talks, likely this weekend, to reach some kind of deal between Turkey and Syria (and Russia).