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Turkey launches new military operation in Syria

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What happened: Turkey has begun what is calls its fourth military operation in north-west Syria in order to reverse the gains made by the Syrian regime over the last two months.

  • Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said that operation ‘Spring Shield’ was launched after 34 Turkish soldiers were killed last Thursday, the deadliest attack on Turkish forces since the start of the Syrian civil war nine years ago.
  • In response, Turkish-made armed drones launched hundreds of strikes on Syrian targets. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 74 Syrian soldiers have been killed since Friday. On Sunday, Turkish forces also shot down two Syrian Su-24 fighter jets. Syrian state news said the country was closing its airspace in the north west of the country and that any aircraft that violated it would “be considered a hostile aircraft which must be downed”.
  • The growing escalation has sparked fears of a major confrontation involving NATO member Turkey and Syria’s main military ally, Russia. On Friday Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked Moscow to step aside and let Turkey engage Syrian regime forces.
  • Russia has remained quiet over the Turkish military offensive and the shooting down of the Syrian fighter jets but said Syria’s operations against what it views as extremist groups in Idlib province will continue. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “In spite of any statements, the fight against these terrorist elements will certainly be continued.”
  • US Special Envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, and US Ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft, are due to visit Turkey today to for talks with Turkish leaders regarding the conflict in Idlib.
  • NATO held an emergency meeting on Syria on 28 February, in which NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance continues to support Turkey through measures including strengthening its air defences. He called on Russia and the Syrian regime to halt their offensive in Idlib and return to the 2018 ceasefire.

 

Context: Syrian regime forces resumed their push to reclaim the last remaining rebel enclave in Idlib province in December 2019, sparking fears that more than three million civilians would try to make their way to safety in Turkey.

  • The Syrian regime’s advance into Idlib over the past two months has displaced nearly a million civilians who have fled to areas near the Turkish border. Turkey is already hosting 3.7m refugees and says it does not have the resources to let more in.
  • Greece said it will block new asylum applications for the next month after President Erdogan said he was allowing migrants to try to get into neighbouring EU member states, Greece and Bulgaria, as of Friday. The Greek government said almost 10,000 migrants were blocked from entering Greece in 24 hours, whilst seven boats arrived at the Greek Islands of Lesbos, Samos and Chios carrying at least 500 people on board.
  • Turkey is accusing the EU of breaking a 2016 promise to give Turkey aid in return for preventing Syrian refugees from entering Europe.
  • Turkey has dispatched an estimated 10,000 soldiers to Syria to support the rebels and stop the Syrian advance. The introduction of Turkish air power is vital to its military goals, as more than 50 Turkish soldiers were killed last month, without Turkish air support over northern Syria.

 

Looking ahead: The growing escalation over Idlib stems in large part from the flaws in the 2018 agreement between Turkey and Russia, in which Turkey was expected to contain and eventually defeat the Jihadist groups in the province. Turkey and Russia were never agreed which groups were “Jihadist” whilst Turkey lacked the resources to carry out its expected duties.

  • Ankara has avoided directly blaming Moscow for the killing of the 34 Turkish soldiers last Thursday. Together with Russia’s denial, this stance could indicate that both are leaving room for negotiation.
  • Turkey is also seeking air support from NATO, but since the fighting is not occurring on Turkish territory there are limits to what NATO will do. In the immediate future, the EU will likely increase its financial and humanitarian aid to Turkey in return for closing its border to the EU for Syrian refugees.