BICOM

What happened: Prime Minister Boris Johnson met yesterday with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in New York and the so called E3 issued a joint statement blaming Iran for the Saudi attack last week and calling for fresh talks on nuclear and other issues.

• The E3 joint statement said: “The time has come for Iran to accept negotiation on a long-term framework for its nuclear programme”.  They also proposed that new talks cover Iran’s destabilising role in Syria and its ballistic missile programme. They blamed Iran for the attack last week on Saudi Arabian oil facilities saying: “It is clear to us that Iran bears responsibility.”
• In an interview with NBC Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for a better deal with Iran saying: “If it was a bad deal — and I’m willing to accept that, it had many, many defects — then let’s do a better deal,” he continued, “and I think there’s one guy who can do a better deal and one guy who understands how to get a difficult partner like Iran over the line and that is the president of the United States. So I hope there will be a Trump deal, to be totally honest with you.” He added: “The Iranians aren’t currently in compliance and we need to bring them back into compliance.  If there is a way to do that, we’re open to discussing possible solutions.”

Context: Before travelling to the US, Prime Minister Johnson blamed Iran for the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing facility and oil site on 14 September and said the UK will consider military action in response. Yesterday he said that a military option was : “Not something that I think will necessarily help the situation.”

• The Prime Minister’s flattery of President Trump increases speculation that he is trying to align the UK more closely towards President’s Trump on Middle East issues.  Prime Minister Johnson may be trying to position himself between the EU and the US on Iran and believes he can mediate between them.
• President Trump welcomed the comments, praising the British PM as being “very smart, very tough” on the Iran situation. “That’s why he’s a winner and that’s why he’s going to be successful in the UK.”
• President Macron has proposed giving Iran a $15bn credit line to make up for the loss in oil revenues due to US sanctions in an effort to entice them to return to negotiations.
• Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad  Zarif, has already ruled out new negotiations, saying on twitter, “No new deal before compliance with current one.”
• In July, BICOM published a briefing about Boris Johnson’s Middle East policy

Looking ahead: The Prime Minister is scheduled to meet both President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani later today in New York.  Ahead of his meeting with Rouhani, Johnson said, “I will not only be discussing Iran’s action in the region, but also the need to release not just Nazanin but others who in our view are being illegally and unfairly held in Tehran.”

• The E3 statement is a very significant development as it marks the first time the three European signatories have shifted from a policy of preserving the JCPOA 2015 nuclear deal to a position that recognises there are serious issues that now need to be resolved in a new deal, something the US has been calling for since May 2018.
• US President Trump will address the UN later today and is expected to set out his position on Iran. Brian Hook, the US envoy for Iran, said the Trump administration would maintain its “maximum pressure” campaign, while calling on the Europeans to sanction Iranians connected to the country’s missile development programme.