BICOM

On Thursday 24 April 2014 Amos Harel, a leading security analyst for Haaretz Newspaper, gave a phone briefing following the news that Fatah and Hamas have agreed a unity deal that could lead to the formation of a new Palestinian government. Harel discussed the deal and its implications, in particular for the peace talks and security coordination in the West Bank. Listen to the podcast here.

 

The deal and its implications

The announcement of a unity agreement in Gaza yesterday was between Hamas and Islamic Jihad on the one hand and Fatah, representing the Palestinian Authority (PA), on the other. There have been talks in the past between the sides, since the rift began when Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007 and throughout the Fatah leadership from the Gaza Strip. Since then there have been two agreements which have not been respected by the two sides.

The official Israeli reaction to this announcement has been quite dramatic. If you follow the announcements from the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem, they emphasise that PA President Mahmoud Abbas has chosen Hamas over peace. This is not an entirely accurate description of what has happened. If you look at the details coming out of Gaza, we have seen only one piece of paper with signatures. We have not seen any reports on the full details of the agreement but it seems to be a very sketchy agreement with both sides deciding on a few major issues and deciding to continue negotiating in the future.

They have decided to try and establish within five weeks a joint government of professional ministers – not politicians – headed by Abbas in Ramallah, and then within six months decide on new elections to the Palestinian parliament, which have not happened since 2006. However, many aspects were not decided. For example, will the security branches of Hamas and Fatah join together or obey orders from one central government? There has not been a decision regarding the nature of the struggle against Israel: will it be armed or popular struggle, or will there be a decision to continue negotiations with Israel?

 

Israel’s reaction

The Israeli response was quite critical but it actually serves Netanyahu’s interests right now, as the deadline for the [nine months of talks brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry] is April 29. Netanyahu is mostly concerned with the blame game – how to make it look as if the PA and not Israel are responsible for the failure of the talks. With Abbas signing this pact with Hamas, it is easier for Netanyahu to portray Abbas as the one who is responsible.

Talking to Israeli security officials, you hear a slightly different view from the official statements made by the government. The professionals on the Israeli side are mostly concerned about the relationship between Hamas and Fatah concerning security threats to Israel. The PA over the last seven years has maintained good security co-operation with Israel despite ups and downs in the relationship. Abbas even insisted that security co-operation would continue a few days ago in a briefing with Israeli journalists in Ramallah.

The question remains – will the PA will continue arresting members of the Hamas military wing in the West Bank now that it has signed this agreement? But it’s a mixed picture. Hamas has played a complex game fighting Israel. Under pressure from the Egyptian military regime, Hamas halted any military action against Israel and attempted to ensure that the smaller organisations in Gaza did not shoot rockets at Israel. Hamas’s policy was keeping a ceasefire in Gaza whilst all the time undermining security in the West Bank and Jerusalem, where Israel and the PA are in control. The question is whether Hamas will now change its policy and restrain its military wing in the West Bank.

As we speak, Israel’s Security Cabinet is about to meet in Jerusalem. We don’t know what will be decided there. The dilemma is about whether to announce the suspension of the talks for the time being or announcing that this is the end of the process, since Abbas has now embraced Hamas and there’s no point in future negotiations.

In summary, we must recall that there were previous attempts at reconciliation between Hamas and PA which were not respected by either side. There is a long way to go between yesterday’s announcement of reconciliation and a final agreement for new elections in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

 

Implications for security in the West Bank and Gaza Strip

It is still a very early stage and I don’t think Fatah and Hamas have even begun to discuss the details of security coordination. I think Hamas is particularly interested in an agreement that would mean that Fatah members would guard the Rafah crossing into Egypt since this would probably mean more legitimacy in the eyes of Israel and Egypt and the crossing would work better for the residents of Gaza, but this requires co-operation with Israel and Egypt, which would take time.

Even more crucial is the security co-operation between Israel and the PA security agencies in the West Bank and this is the most troubling aspect from the Israeli point of view. Does this agreement mean that militant groups in the West Bank are free to act without interference from the PA?

There is also an extremely important question over whether this means that the PA may release Hamas prisoners from its jails. If the PA decided to release prisoners from its jails in the West Bank and Israel intervenes to arrest them, this could immediately lead to a crisis.