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Analysis

BICOM Analysis: Arab foreign ministers visit Jerusalem

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Introduction

No sooner had Tony Blair left Jerusalem last week than the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt arrived to discuss the Arab Peace Initiative. But whilst the confluence of diplomatic initiatives gives a sense of forward momentum, we are as yet far from a watershed moment of regional peacemaking. The various acts of diplomacy each reflect a desire to support the weakest point in the tent of the moderates, the Palestinian Fatah leadership under Mahmoud Abbas. Despite the hype around the Arab Initiative, the Arab world remains deeply divided. The Saudis are taking a back seat following the embarrassing failure of their intervention in Palestinian internal affairs, and the intentions of the Syrians remain unclear. Whilst Jordanian and Egyptian engagement is positive in and of itself, they can offer little to Israel in terms of broader regional acceptance unless they can bring more Arab states to the table.

After the two ministers report back to the League, the next test of feelings within the Arab world will be the US proposed summit, expected to take place in mid-October. The process leading up to this summit commenced with a scheduled visit to the region this week by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Israel is viewing the entire process as its main priority for the immediate future, noting that opportunities are likely to arise from it.

What was the purpose of the visit?

On Wednesday, 25 July, Abdel Ilah al-Khatib, the foreign minister of Jordan, and Ahmed Aboul Gheit, his Egyptian counterpart, arrived in Jerusalem and met Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, President Shimon Peres, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Whilst Israeli officials described the visit as an ‘historic’ delegation on behalf of the Arab League, their precise status was not without controversy. That the two were official representatives of the Arab League was keenly denied by the League’s Secretary-General Amr Moussa.1 In Jerusalem the pair described themselves as being on assignment from the ‘Arab Summit’ to discuss the Arab Peace Initiative. The equivocation about just who they represented, and the fact that only representatives of countries which already have relations with Israel came, is an indication of the extreme caution with which the Arab League is moving with regard to the recognition of Israel.

The Arab Peace Initiative, first proposed by the Saudis and adopted by the Arab League in 2002, was revived earlier this year with the formation of a Working Group tasked with furthering the proposal. The initiative offers full recognition of Israel by the Arab world in return for Israeli withdrawal to pre-1967 borders, the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital, and a ‘just’ solution to the Palestinian refugee question based on UN General Assembly Resolution 194. That resolution, adopted at the end of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, proposes that refugees wishing to return may do so, or accept compensation. When the Initiative was first proposed at the height of the second intifada, then-prime minister Ariel Sharon responded coolly, concerned that withdrawal to the 1967 borders threatens Israel’s security, and fearing the ambiguity over the question of refugees. This year, however, Israel’s response was more positive, with PM Olmert offering to meet with Arab leaders.

Israel’s interest in regional engagement appears to have increased following the Hamas coup in Gaza. In a joint press conference with the visiting ministers on Wednesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Livni praised the Arab Initiative as representing an historic opportunity for Israeli-Arab relations and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.2 In the wake of the Hamas takeover of Gaza, Israel shares a key priority with Egypt and Jordan. All three fear the growing strength of the extreme Islamic movement, and are keen to stop Hamas coming to dominate the West Bank as it has Gaza. With PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas reassuming control of the West Bank, and appointing moderate Salam Fayyad as prime minister, Israel sees a Palestinian partner it finds acceptable to deal with. The strategy for weakening Hamas is to strengthen Abbas and his hold on the West Bank by offering concessions on the ground such as prisoner releases, and by holding out the prospects of more substantial peace talks in the near future. After his meeting with the Arab ministers, PM Olmert confirmed his willingness to advance a process of negotiations with Abbas on the broad outline for a two-state-solution.3 He also stressed that he would welcome discussions with representatives of additional Arab states.4

Limitation of the Arab Initiative

Despite the fanfare around the Arab Peace Initiative, the Arab world is not united on its position towards Israel. Jordan and Egypt are the only two members of the Arab League to have full diplomatic relations with Israel, and they are at the vanguard of the pro-western orientated grouping in an increasingly polarised region. The other grouping, under the influence of Iran, includes Syria, Hamas and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah. The latter made their own contribution to regional diplomacy on Monday, with their leader Hassan Nasrallah declaring in an interview that they had rebuilt their rocket strength and could hit “any point in Israel.”5 Syria, for its part, under international pressure over the UN inquiry into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and their continued attempts to manipulate Lebanese affairs,6 are sending mixed messages. Whilst they have been suggesting their willingness to negotiate with Israel on a land for peace basis, they have also been deepening their military ties to Iran, with reports of an arms deal to supply modern tanks and planes to the Syrians.7

The original sponsors of the plan, the Saudis, though keen to halt Iran’s growing influence, appear to have lost the mood to expend political capital on peace initiatives. They feel greatly disappointed at the collapse of the Palestinian unity deal, which they brokered in February, but which the international community refused to back and the Palestinians failed to keep.

Few other Arab states are making their positions public. A further indication of the reluctance of Arab states to throw themselves behind a regional peace initiative is the, as yet, underwhelming response from Arab capitals to US President George Bush’s proposal for a regional conference to be held later this year. It is currently not clear who will attend the conference, an issue US Secretary of State Rice may seek to rectify in her forthcoming visit to the region.8

What can the Arab states bring to the process?

Those Arab states which do wish to engage in the peace process can help in two ways. Firstly they can respond to Israeli concessions towards the Palestinians with conciliatory diplomatic gestures towards Israel. The increase in diplomatic warmth towards Israel from the Arab world in the wake of the disengagement from Gaza and part of the northern West Bank in 2005 was a good example of the way this can help. Israel craves legitimacy in the eyes of its neighbours and the good feeling Israel got from international praise and recognition helped to ease the pain caused by the internally divisive concession being made on the ground.9

The second way Arab states can help is by offering political support to the Palestinian moderate leadership headed by PA Chairman Abbas. They need to back the Palestinians when they engage with Israel, confront extremists and reform their political structures. It has also been suggested that Egypt and Jordan could begin negotiating directly over future relations they will have with a Palestinian state as part of developing the Palestinians’ ‘political horizon’.10

The most vulnerable point in the strategy to bolster the Palestinian moderates in the West Bank is Chairman Abbas himself. Whilst his initial response to the Hamas coup in Gaza – replacing the government and outlawing Hamas’s military wing – was positive, he has little prospect of regaining control in Gaza, and the West has been disappointed in the past by his failure to clean up Palestinian political life and reform his own party. These steps are vital if Fatah is to regain the support of the Palestinian majority. The international Quartet’s Middle East envoy Tony Blair, tasked with building Palestinian institutions, will have his work cut out, but it is success for the Palestinians in the West Bank that will further isolate Hamas in Gaza.


1 Arabs Woo Israel Over Peace Plan, BBC News, 25 July 2007

2 Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Press Conference held with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdelelah al-Khatib, 25 July 2007

3 Aluf Benn and Barak Ravid, PM confirms intention to negotiate with Abbas on formation of Palestinian state, Haaretz, 25 July 2007

4 Barak Ravid, PM meets Egypt, Jordan FMs to discuss Arab peace initiative, Haaretz, 25 July 2007

5 Zeina Karam, Hezbollah: Rockets Can Reach All Israel. Guardian, 24 July 2007

6 See BICOM Notes, 17 July 2007

7 Roee Nahmias; Iran to fund Syrian arms deals – report, 21 July 2007

8 Sue Pleming, Scant details as Rice lobbies for Mideast meeting, Reuters, 29 July 2007

9 See remarks by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom addressing the UN General Assembly, 20 September 2005

10 Robert Satloff, In the Wake of the Hamas Coup: Rethinking America’s ‘Grand Strategy’ for the New Palestinian Authority, Washington Institute for Near East Studies, PolicyWatch #1252, June 26, 2007