BICOM

Executive Summary

In the course of President Bush’s visit to Israel, Israeli officials were keen to convey clear messages to the president on a number of salient issues: These were:

• Gaza and its Hamas rulers
• The Syrian track
• Iran and its nuclear programme

All these issues are shaped by the significant fact of Teheran’s attempt to expand its regional influence. In Gaza, it is Hamas’s growing alliance with Iran which is enabling the organisation to improve its weapons capability and increase the circle of Israeli population centres which it can threaten. The presence and consolidation of Hamas is raising the main question mark over hopes for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The central issue regarding the Israel-Syria track is the hope that Syria may be pulled away from its alliance with Iran. And of course – the Iranian nuclear issue overshadows everything. The visit of President Bush confirmed, however, that the US and Israel share a common awareness of this central challenge in the region, and a common commitment to effectively responding to it.

Introduction

President George Bush’s just-completed visit to Israel is being seen as a significant re-affirmation of the deep and close bonds linking Israel and the United States. In his speech to the Knesset, Bush declared Israel and the US’s common interest in opposing extremism and terror in the Middle East, naming Iran and its allied organisations Hamas and Hezbollah as common enemies.[i]

Senior Israeli sources confirm that Israeli leaders were also keen to convey a series of messages to the president regarding Israel’s current stances on key issues. What were these messages? This document will summarise Israel’s current stance on the central policy areas of Hamas-run Gaza, the Syrian track, and the Iranian nuclear issue.

Gaza and its Hamas rulers

Regarding Gaza, Israeli involvement in Egyptian-mediated attempts to secure the release of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit is continuing. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defence Minister Ehud Barak are heading to Sharm el-Sheikh today, where they will meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.[ii] The release of Shalit and the search for a truce between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza will head the agenda. However, there is a growing sense that if Hamas continues to be inflexible regarding the issue of Shalit, and regarding the ongoing rocket attacks on Israeli civilians – then a major IDF operation into Gaza will become an inevitability. Pro-opposition Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar reported on Saturday that Egyptian Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman has informed Hamas leaders that such an operation is imminent, unless Gilad Shalit is released as part of an exchange of prisoners between Hamas and Israel. According to al-Akhbar, Suleiman met with Hamas leaders in Cairo following his visit to Israel earlier this week, and conveyed this message.[iii]

Regarding the Annapolis process – President Bush, in his speech following his meeting with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, re-iterated his confidence that a deal on Palestinian statehood could be reached before he leaves office in 2009. Privately, Israeli officials though supportive of Annapolis, are skeptical of it bearing fruit. The urgency of the issues of Gaza, Syria and the Iranian nuclear issue – in contrast to the stalemated Annapolis process – led to these being at the top of the Israeli agenda in terms of subjects for discussion with President Bush.

The Syrian track

On the Syrian track, there is indication of some movement. Prior to his arrival in Israel, Bush said to reporters that his administration had never forbidden Israel from beginning talks with Syria – and that he understood that the Israeli position regarding Syria might well be different to the position of the US.[iv] Senior Israeli sources suggested that, the president’s careful remarks notwithstanding, the US is no longer standing in the way of the resumption of negotiations between Israel and Syria, and there is some optimism within Israeli official circles regarding the Syrian track. Prime Minister Olmert has already satisfied the key Syrian pre-condition for talks – namely, an Israeli expression of willingness for withdrawal from the Golan Heights.  The contacts between Israel and Syria – with Turkey acting as go-between, are ongoing. However, major issues remain unresolved. First of all, the level of potential American involvement in the process is not clear – and without major US involvement, there is no chance of success. The main Syrian interest in making peace with Israel is in order to return Damascus to Washington’s good graces – leading to the removal of sanctions. But the price that Damascus is willing to pay to gain this is not yet clear. From the point of view of the current US Administration, the price is likely to be the ending of support for Hamas and Hezbollah, the end of interference in Lebanon, and the severing of Syria’s strategic relationship with Iran. Damascus is clearly hoping to pay a lower price – which means that it remains most likely that the Israeli-Syrian track will remain effectively on hold until a new US Administration takes office.[v]

Iran and its nuclear programme

On Iran, Prime Minister Olmert, in his speech to the special Knesset session welcoming President Bush, expressed himself in the following terms:  “Israel believes that while the severity of the Iranian threat forces us not to rule out any other course of action, presenting a united international, political and economic front against Iran, and more severe and effective sanctions, is a necessary, even if not final, step on the right path to curbing the Iranian threat.”[vi] Some observers noted in Olmert’s words an implicit hint that Israel is prepared, in the event that sanctions fail to bring about the abandonment by Iran of its nuclear ambitions, to take unilateral action. An interview over the weekend with Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin indicated that Israel believes that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapons capability sometime between 2010 and 2015 if its nuclear programme is left unimpeded. This time frame indicates the urgency of this issue.[vii]

Conclusion

The essential point underlying the list of areas of shared concern which dominated President Bush’s visit to Israel was expressed by the president himself when he identified Iran and Syria as ‘spoilers’ of the region’s hopes for peace and progress. [viii] All the issues detailed above – Gaza, the Syrian track and of course the Iranian nuclear issue are all shaped by the salient fact of Teheran’s attempt to expand its regional influence. In Gaza, it is Hamas’s growing alliance with Iran which is enabling the organisation to improve its weapons capability and increase the circle of Israeli population centres which it can threaten. The presence and consolidation of Hamas is raising the main question mark over hopes for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The central issue regarding the Israel-Syria track is the hope that Syria may be pulled away from its alliance with Iran. And of course – the Iranian nuclear issue overshadows everything – containing as it does the possibility of exponentially increasing the already well-developed Iranian capability for encouraging strife and instability in the region.

The visit of President Bush confirmed, however, that the US and Israel share a common awareness of this central challenge in the region, and a common commitment to effectively responding to it.

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[i] President George Bush’s speech to the Knesset, 15 May 2008. www.whitehouse.gov

[ii] Roni Sofer, “Livni, Barak to discuss Shalit deal with Mubarak,” Ynetnews, 17 May 2008. www.ynetnews.com

[iii] Roee Nahmias, “Suleiman: Major IDF op expected if Shalit isn’t released,” Ynetnews, 17 May 2008. www.ynetnews.com

[iv] “Peace talks don’t rely on Olmert, Bush says before visit to Israel,” Associated Press, 13 May 2008. www.iht.com

[v] Peter Hirschberg, ‘Olmert is closer to deal with Syria, Israel is not,” IPS, 28 April 2008. ipsnews.net

[vi] PM Olmert’s address to special Knesset session in honor of President Bush, communicated by the PM’s Spokesman, 15 May 2008. 

[vii] Interview with Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin, Haaretz, 16 May 2008. 

[viii] “Bush: ME nations must reject spoilers such as Iran, Syria,” Associated Press, 18 May 2008. www.jpost.com