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Analysis

BICOM Analysis: Israeli perspectives on the current unrest in Egypt

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Key points

  • Israel’s 1979 peace treaty with Egypt remains a key landmark event in the long history of the Middle East peace process. In recent years, Egypt has emerged as one of Israel’s closest regional allies.
  • The protests continue to focus primarily on domestic issues. Despite warnings of a collapse of the Egyptian regime and the emergence of an anti-Western, anti-Israel government, there is no obvious political figure or organisation in Egypt likely to be able to turn the protests in this direction.  
  • The current domestic focus of the protests may change as a coherent leadership emerges. This will particularly be the case if Islamist elements come to dominate the protest movement leadership.  
  • Hosni Mubarak’s period in office is likely to be drawing to a close. But the regime still has the loyalty of the army. Accurate prediction is impossible, but without a coherent leadership, it is possible that the current ruling elite in Egypt may cling to power.

Introduction

Over the weekend, protests in Egypt have grown and intensified. On Friday (28/1) the Egyptian army was deployed on the streets for the first time, but sought to avoid clashes with the protestors. Still, the death toll from the protest stood at 62 on Sunday morning, according to official sources, and more than twice that according to protestors quoted in the media.

The Egyptian protests are taking place alongside a more general ferment in the Arab world, which was set in motion by the successful toppling of President Zin Ben-Ali in Tunisia. Demonstrations and protests are also taking place in Jordan and in Yemen. The rise to power of a Hezbollah-dominated government in Lebanon is adding to the sense of rapid change under way.

President Hosni Mubarak, meanwhile, made clear in a speech on Friday that he has no intention of resigning, though he agreed to appoint a vice president – Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman – a new prime minister, and replace his Cabinet. However, the protests continue, as these concessions fall far short of the protestors’ demands.

Israel and Egypt: cold peace, tacit alliance

Israel’s 1979 peace treaty with Egypt remains a key landmark in the long history of the Middle East peace process. Egypt, as the strongest and most populous of the Arab states, had fought four wars with Israel. The peace between the two countries, brokered with US support, was pivotal in establishing a new regional order and paved the way for a subsequent peace agreement between Israel and Jordan and the ongoing diplomatic negotiations with the Palestinian leadership.

In recent years, Egypt has emerged as one of Israel’s closest regional allies. This alliance has derived from a common perception of the key dynamics in the region. Both countries are vital pro-Western states in the Middle East. Both are particularly concerned by the growing regional influence of Iran. Egypt has played an important mediating role in efforts to end the split between Fatah and Hamas, and takes an active part in preventing terror activity in Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has built a close working relationship with Mubarak, based on these shared interests. The two confer regularly, even at times when the diplomatic process with the Palestinians encountered severe difficulties. Last Wednessday, former minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer spoke of Egypt as ‘our closest friend in the region…the cooperation between us goes beyond the strategic.”

Israeli responses to the events in Egypt

Israeli experts, in common with their counterparts elsewhere, failed to predict the sudden outburst of protest in Egypt. The official Israeli response has so far been notably cautious. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted the events in a statement prior to the weekly Cabinet meeting, and reaffirmed Israel’s desire to maintain good relations with Egypt. At the same time, the Prime Minister avoided taking a clear stance on the events, and he has instructed ministers to avoid further comment on the issue.

Former Trade and Industry Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer is the main expert on Egypt within the Israeli political establishment. Ben-Eliezer has maintained good relations with Egyptian leaders and reportedly spoke to Mubarak over the weekend. However, in public statements, Ben-Eliezer has also been careful not to express support for either side.

Israel has withdrawn non-essential official personnel, but has kept the Embassy staff in place. The embassy is closed, and officials are working from the ambassador’s Residence. The Counter-Terrorism Bureau has issued a very strong warning that all Israelis should leave Egypt immediately, though considerable numbers of Israeli tourists remain in the country.

Israeli commentary and analysis on the events has focused on the possible ramifications of the fall of the regime, and on examining the options now available to Mubarak in his attempt to manage the crisis. Amos Harel in a representative piece in Ha’aretz noted that the collapse of the regime in Cairo, if it takes place, would have a ‘massive, mainly negative’ effect on Israel’s position in the region. Harel noted that regime change could potentially place the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan in danger.

In the shorter term, Harel wrote that the toppling of the regime could have an immediate negative effect on the considerable security coordination that currently exists between Israel and Egypt. The movement, for example, of Israeli missile-carrying ships through the Suez Canal could be affected, hitting at Israel’s ability to interdict Hamas arms’ smuggling from Sudan. The already cold peace between Israel and Egypt could grow even colder.

However, it is important to remember that the demonstrations in Egypt (and smaller scale protests elsewhere – in Jordan and Yemen) have not yet taken on either an anti-Israeli or indeed an anti-Western coloration. Rather, the demonstrations focus on the acute social and economic problems that beset Egyptian society.

Outside the close circle of military and political figures that surrounded President Mubarak, the intellectual and political elite remained opposed to the normalisation of relations with Israel and the pro-Western policies of the regime. However, until now there is no obvious anti-Western political figure or organisation in Egypt seeking to focus the protests on these issues. Even the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which maintains a strong anti-Israel line, lacks a clear revolutionary programme for taking power, and its victory as a result of the current protests, while not impossible, is also not inevitable.

This absence of a clear alternative to the regime could well prove crucial as events unfold in the days and weeks ahead. Much will depend on whether the military, which enjoys immense US support in equipment and training, will remain firm in its current defence of the regime. Initial reports suggest that army forces are looking to avoid confrontation with the demonstrators and that opposition leaders like Mohammed ElBaradei, have been in contact with the military leadership to ensure that the protest does not spiral out of control.

What are Mubarak’s options?

Mubarak may now choose to bring forward presidential elections, which are currently scheduled for September, and to open negotiations with the protestors, perhaps towards the inclusion of their representatives in government prior to new elections. This could have the effect of requiring the opposition to begin to engage with the political process, and decreasing antagonism against the regime.

Alternatively, Mubarak could enforce a military regime and appoint an emergency government to deal with the crisis. Such a government could move swiftly to suppress demonstrations and divert financial resources to calm those sections of the populace protesting for economic reasons. In either case, the security forces would move to contain those remaining elements still taking part in protests.

The priority of the regime will be to contain and gradually deplete the protests. In this regard, the seeming acceptance by Mubarak that his son Gamal will not inherit the presidency, and that he himself will not run for another term are likely to be seen by the protestors as constituting a significant achievement and may allow for the peaceful dissipation of the protests.

The interests of the Egyptian army, as the key guarantor of the regime, are crucial. The army was known to have consistently opposed the succession of Gamal Mubarak to the presidency. The appointment of Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman to the vice presidency is likely to satisfy the security forces, and to assure their continued support for the regime. Their assumption will be that Suleiman is now being prepared to take over the presidency.

The latest regional events in context

Oded Eran, director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and a former Israeli ambassador to Jordan, in an interview with the New York Times, placed the latest events in Egypt and elsewhere within the broader prism, commonly cited in Israel  as two main ‘arcs’ facing one another in the region. These are a ‘northern arc’, consisting of Iran, Syria and now Lebanon, and a ‘southern arc’ of pro-Western states – including Israel, Egypt, Jordan, the PA and the Persian Gulf states.

Seen from this point of view, the current unrest in Egypt, and to a lesser extent Jordan, stands to weaken the ‘southern arc’. The ‘northern arc’ states are also undemocratic, but possess a willingness to use ruthless force to quell discontent, which the pro-Western states lack. Eran recommended ‘congratulating the forces calling for more democracy,’ while not failing to see this broader context.

Nevertheless, Israeli government officials believe that it is too early to begin ‘eulogising’ the regime in Egypt, which has held power since 1952. Hosni Mubarak’s period in office is likely to be drawing to a close. Accurate predictions are of course impossible. But since the regime still has the loyalty of the army, and in the absence of a coherent revolutionary leadership, it remains distinctly possible that the Free Officers regime, which seized power in Egypt more than half a century ago, is not yet about to depart the stage.