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Key points

• In a historic victory, Tzipi Livni has won the race for the leadership of the Kadima party, making her the second woman in Israel’s history to lead a governing political party. The final results indicated that Livni won by a small margin of 431 votes, a difference of 1.1 percentage points between Livni and her main rival, Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz.
• Livni will be granted 42 days to assemble a new governing coalition. If unsuccessful, general elections will take place within 90 days.
• Her experience as foreign minister and her time as the leader of Israel’s negotiations team with the Palestinian leadership should ensure that there will not be a hiatus in the Annapolis diplomatic drive.

Political options: Coalition or elections

The final results indicated that Livni won by a small margin of 431 votes, a difference of 1.1 percentage points between Livni and her main rival, Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz. Livni won 43.1 percent of the vote, while Mofaz won 42 percent. Internal Affairs Minister Meir Sheetrit managed to win 8.5 percent of the vote, and Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter came in with 6.5 percent. In the end, voter turnout stood at 55 percent of Kadima’s 74,000 members.

Livni’s victory in the Kadima party primary marks an important milestone, making Livni only the second woman in Israel’s history to lead a governing political party, and, if successful, the second female prime minister. However, Livni will face some noteworthy political challenges before being able to recreate Golda Meir’s 1969 achievement. Livni’s victory was achieved largely thanks to her public appeal as a centrist leader, able to attract voters from the traditional political camps. One of her key appeals to the electorate is her image as an honest and moderate politician, leading a modest lifestyle not directly associated with business interests, and who publicly criticised Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s leadership after the Second Lebanon War.

First, Kadima’s new leader will have to determine whether she intends to invest her efforts in forming a new governing coalition or whether she will harness her current popular support and push for general elections at the closest possible date. Livni’s top campaign advisors, a team comprised of media and political strategists who accompanied former prime minister and Kadima founder Ariel Sharon, initially leaned towards the la! tter option, hoping to capitalise on Livni’s current popularity. Recent polls indicated that under Livni’s leadership, Kadima would receive 28 seats and appeared tied with Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Livni may want to use her momentum to set a date for early elections and place herself in comfortable position to form the next coalition. However, Livni will have to overcome the will of a majority of Kadima members who prefer to avoid new elections at this point.

Now that Livni stands at the forefront of Kadima, she is likely to attract more criticism from political rivals who will try to undermine her credibility and experience. Livni’s main rival for the party leadership, Transportation Minister Mofaz, focused most of his attacks on Livni’s lack of experience in defence and security matters. It is safe to assume that both Israeli Labour and Likud will repeat this line of attack, and point to Livni’s supposed unpreparedness to lead Israel through the security challenges it faces. Both parties will hope that the Israeli public will consider military expertise as a determining factor in the next elections, undercutting Livni’s appeal.

Another criticism that has been levelled at Livni is her inability so far to build a strong team of advisors. Livni has been often portrayed as a soloist, who thinks and decides alone or with the advice of her husband and confidant Naftali Shpitzer. Livni will need to prove her ability to put together a team that will help her overcome the challenges of the Israeli political system and implement her agenda on the national and international level.

Expecting critics to target her political experience, Livni may prefer to opt to form a new coalition and prove her competence at the country’s helm. In the immediate period, Livni can also benefit from the political composition of the Knesset, which may prove more conducive to her diplomatic agenda (see below). Recent polls suggest that elections in the near future will favour the right-wing bloc and weaken the centre-left parties. Under these circumstances, Livni will face a significantly harder political challenge in forming a coalition.

If Livni chooses to form a new coalition, she faces two possible options:

 

• Preserving the current coalition. Under the current parliamentary composition, Livni can inherit a coalition of 67 MKs, with Israeli Labour (19 seats) and the Sephardic ultra-orthodox Shas party (12 seats) being the main partners. However, this inheritance will come at a price: Shas especially will present Livni with a list of demands that are likely to strain the 2009 budget that was recently approved. Livni may attempt to invite the left-wing Meretz party to join her coalition if Shas’s demands appear unbridgeable, but this coalition – with 60 MKs – will rely on the outside support of Arab parties and will undermine Livni’s image as a centrist leader.
• Forming a national unity coalition. Livni may attempt to establish a national unity coalition with Israeli Labour and Likud. However, this scenario is less likely for two main reasons. First, Likud has been criticising Livni’s handling of the negotiations with the Palestinians, accusing her of compromising on key issues. It is hard to see how the gaps between the sides can be bridged while still maintaining the diplomatic momentum. Second, recent polls suggest that Likud may gain 28 seats if elections were held today, compared with the 12 it holds at present. It is therefore hard to see what may motivate Likud to join a unity coalition under Livni when it can have a chance at the country’s leadership.

As noted already, if attempts to form a coalition are not successful, Livni will look to gain the premiership through general elections. The negotiations process with other major political forces such as Likud and Israeli Labour will enable Livni to present herself as a responsible political leader striving for political unity and stability, while pointing to her opponents’ political interests. However, it is likely that Livni will try to minimise the political heckling to avoid staining her clean reputation.

Livni looking ahead: Views on key issues

Whether Livni will opt for early elections or attempt to form a coalition, it is worth looking more closely at her views on some of the national and international challenges Israel faces:

 

• Israeli-Palestinian talks: Livni has been heading the Israeli negotiations team since the end of 2007 and has become a strong advocate of the need to reach an agreement based on a two-state solution and the belief that time is not on Israel’s side. However, Livni recently explained that her view is informed by her strong belief that such a solution will serve Israel’s national security and improve its standings in the international arena. While Livni insists that all the core issues are part of the negotiations, she is always careful to stress that she rejects any solution that will include the return of Palestinian refugees to Israel and Israeli withdrawal from major settlement blocs west of the security fence.
• Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip: Livni repeatedly stated that she will not accept the current status quo that sees the de facto separation between the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Livni is therefore likely to insist that the Palestinian leadership prove its ability to regain its rule in Gaza before an agreement can be struck. Internationally, Livni will continue to call for Hamas’s isolation. However, despite previous statements, it is believed that Livni will continue Israel’s current policy of restraint in response to violations of the ceasefire.
• Israel-Syria talks: Livni is sceptical regarding the current indirect talks both in format and in substance. On this issue, she repeatedly states that “Peace is not only about eating hummus in Damascus,” and she is likely to demand clarifications from the Syrian leadership regarding Damascus’s intentions. Livni is mostly wary of Syria’s attempt to use the negotiations as an instrument to regains its international status.
• The Iranian threat: Livni is one of the leading advocates for the internationalisation of the struggle against Iran’s ambitions to reach nuclear capability and regional hegemony. During her term in the Foreign Ministry, Livni used her power to broaden international cooperation against Iran and is likely to continue this policy as leader of Kadima. The ability to handle this issue competently will be a pivotal electoral issue in the next general election.
• Corruption: After PM Olmert’s indictment, public resentment against corruption is likely to take centre stage in the next general election. In the eyes of the Israeli public, Livni symbolises a clean, conscientious politician and is likely to make this issue central to her political agenda.

Background: Kadima – from emergence to the road ahead

Kadima, which means ‘forward’ or ‘onward’, owes its existence to former prime minister Ariel Sharon, who formed the party in November 2005 as a centrist, third-way party that combined political forces from Israel’s traditional left and right wings. Prior to that, as leader of Likud, Sharon was involved in a prolonged political tug-of-war with right-wing elements within and outside his party following the implementation of the disengagement plan from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank. Sharon’s decision to split from his long-time political home and establish a new party was seen by many as the realisation of the political ‘big-bang’, namely, a radical realignment of Israel’s political landscape.

Although the immediate period that followed the party’s formation indicated that the bipartisan vision was taking shape, attracting leading figures from Likud and Israeli Labour, Sharon was never able to l! ead the party in elections because of a massive stroke he suffered in January 2006. Ehud Olmert succeeded Sharon as leader of the party and was able to lead it to victory in the general election that followed.

Under Olmert’s leadership, the party initially set out to complete the unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, but Hamas’s strengthening in the Palestinian territories and the eruption of the Second Lebanon War hindered this process. However, the renewal of negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in June 2007 and the indirect talks with Syrian representatives since May 2008 established Kadima’s pragmatic, even dovish, image.

The diplomatic achievements of the government were overshadowed by ongoing investigations against Olmert and his inability to recover from the criticism directed at him following the failures of the Second Lebanon War. Following long internal and external political pressures, Olmert announced that he would not contend in the Kadima primary, and that following the election of a new leader, he would resign from office.

Following Olmert’s departure, the party’s initial promise of centrist politics still nee! ds to be proven. The next party leader thus faces three primary tasks: determining the party’s future political agenda, ensuring political unity within the party ranks and regaining the Israeli public’s trust.