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Analysis

BICOM Analysis: The ongoing political crisis in Lebanon

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At the root of the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon, according to many informed analysts, is the attempt by Syria and its allies and clients to re-assert control over the country, and to bring down the democratically-elected government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and the March 14 movement.  This paper will look at the latest developments in the situation in Lebanon.  We will consider and assess key developments since the conclusion of last year’s war between Israel and Hezbollah. We will conclude with recommended actions to be taken by the international community to preserve Lebanese sovereignty.

What has happened since the war ended?

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought the Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006 to an end, sought to normalise the situation in southern Lebanon, returning control of the border to the Lebanese army, and introducing a beefed-up UNIFIL force of 13,000 troops into southern Lebanon.  The resolution called for the disarming of all militias and for the “Government of Lebanon to secure its borders and other entry points to prevent the entry in Lebanon without its consent of arms or related materiel and requests UNIFIL as authorised in paragraph 11 to assist the Government of Lebanon at its request.”1

However, according to evidence recently presented by a UN Independent Border Assessment Team, Lebanon’s eastern border is inadequately supervised and vulnerable to smuggling.2  Israel has repeatedly claimed that the border is being used for large-scale transfers of arms from Syria to Hezbollah in the south.  The result, according to an IDF assessment reported in the Israeli media, is that Hezbollah has succeeded in completely replenishing its weapons supplies – which were seriously depleted after last summer’s war.  The reports suggest that Hezbollah has received consignments of medium-range missiles, including Katyusha 220-mm and 302-mm rockets, which have a range of up to 60 kilometres.3

Hezbollah officials have issued pointed warnings against any deployment of foreign observers on Lebanon’s border with Syria.4 This, however, is precisely the measure currently being considered by the UN as possibly the only feasible means to prevent further transfers of arms from Syria.

Hezbollah’s re-arming is taking place against a backdrop of continued political crisis in Lebanon.  Among the factors contributing to instability in Lebanon is the ongoing attempt by Syria to prevent the establishment of an international court to try those suspected of involvement in the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik al-Hariri. UN investigators looking into the murder of Hariri have now identified individuals suspected of involvement in the murder.5

A related factor in the crisis in Lebanon is the attempt by the pro-Syrian opposition to subvert and bring down the government of Fouad Siniora.  Buoyed by its self-proclaimed ‘divine victory’ over Israel in the war last year, Hezbollah, together with its allies Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement of General Michel Aoun, led their followers into the streets last November, demanding increased representation in the cabinet.  The opposition is currently threatening to establish a ‘second government’ which would proclaim itself to be the legitimate government of Lebanon.

Some analysts have suggested that the Lebanese army would remain neutral in such an eventuality, enabling the alternative government to establish its authority in parts of the country where the opposition is strong – such as the south, and the Beqa’a valley area.6

A third factor adding to the political tension in Lebanon is the emergence in the last months of armed Sunni extremist groups centred on Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps.  The Fatah al-Islam organisation centred on the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp and the Jund a-Sham group at the Ayn al-Hilweh camp have engaged the Lebanese army in recent weeks.  Meanwhile, terror activities have commenced in the south – with the killing of six Spanish UNIFIL soldiers on June 24th, and the launching of Katyusha rockets at Israel.  Defying warnings by Hezbollah, the Lebanese army has engaged the Islamist forces in Nahr al-Bared, and is currently in the process of neutralising them.7

Making sense of the latest developments

The thread linking all these disparate developments – the porous eastern border, the re-arming of Hezbollah, the attempts to undermine the Hariri tribunal, and the mysterious emergence of violent Sunni Islamist organisations in the north – is the ongoing Syrian attempt, in alliance with Iran, to re-assert its dominance over Lebanon.  As one analyst of Lebanese politics put it – “having won in Gaza, Tehran and Damascus are now pushing forward in South Lebanon.”8

Syria wishes to render UNIFIL incapable of disturbing it in its ongoing destabilisation of Lebanon.  The recent strikes at UNIFIL forces may well be explainable in this context.  Certainly, the regime in Damascus has a long history of making use of proxy paramilitary forces as a tool of policy.

With the international community intimidated into accepting a de facto abandonment of Resolution 1701, the wholesale destabilisation of Lebanon’s internal politics could proceed unhindered.  In this context, one may understand the possible imminent emergence of a parallel government, the demonstrations and unrest, and perhaps also the periodic, mysterious political murders of prominent anti-Syrian figures that have rocked Lebanon since 2005.

If this analysis is correct, the goal is the eventual replacement of the Siniora government by an openly pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian regime.

Again, many observers note that Sunni jihadists entered Lebanon from the east, and locate the cause of their sudden emergence as once again linked to Syrian attempts at destabilisation.

Western policy responses to the threat

Syrian machinations in Lebanon carry the threat of renewed civil war if they are not faced down in time.  It is crucial that Britain act in concert with the US on the UN Security Council, to make sure that UNIFIL and international observers are deployed effectively to stop illegal arms transfers and the rebuilding of paramilitary infrastructures – in direct contravention of UN resolutions.

Syria (and its ally, Iran) must be held responsible for the ongoing violation of Resolution 1701.  International sanctions against both countries should be put in place in the event of either country failing to respond positively to calls for the cessation of subversion and destabilisation in Lebanon.

The international community – Britain, the US, and pro-western regional powers such as Saudi Arabia – must come together in support of the beleaguered government of Lebanon.  It is vital that the threat represented by the latest events is recognised in time.  The Saudis can play a vital, increased role in supporting the elected government in Beirut.

A failure to act in a firm and timely fashion by the international community over the issue of subversion in Lebanon is likely to embolden the Syrians in their strategy – which may lead in the not-distant future to renewed civil strife in Lebanon, as the Siniora government and its allies resist a Hezbollah-led, Syrian and Iranian supported coup attempt.       

 

1 Text of UNSCR 1701.  UN Information Centre.  http://www.unicwash.org

2 Yoav Stern, “UN Report: Lebanon-Syria border completely porous,” Haaretz, June 27, 2007.  http://www.haaretz.com

3 Yaacov Katz, “IDF wary of possible war with Syria,” Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2007.  http://www.jpost.com

4 Michael Young, “Iran and Syria’s plan: an interpretation,” Daily Star, June 21, 2007. http://michaelyoungscolumns.blogspot.com

5 Patrick Worsnip, “UN Hariri investigators say they identify suspects,” Reuters, July 12, 2007. http://news.yahoo.com 

6 See “Possible eruption of violent crisis in Lebanon after July 15,” Memri, July 6, 2007.  http://www.memri.org

7 “Lebanese army pounds camp,” Reuters, July 12, 2007.  http://www.reuters.com

8 Michael Young.