BICOM

As Israel’s relationship with neighbouring Sunni Arab states warms, security cooperation increases and the shared threat of Iran looms, are we seeing the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict? Dr Toby Greene, BICOM’s Senior Research Associate, has produced a Strategic Assessment of Israel’s warming ties with the Sunni Arab states.

Key Points

• Several Sunni Arab states are warming in their attitudes to Israel in the face of the growing shared threats and opportunities. Threats are posed by Iran and its allies, the expanding threat of Sunni Jihadism, and US retrenchment, whilst opportunities come from the potential for cooperation in economic, security, technological and even diplomatic fields.
• Israel’s security cooperation with Egypt and Jordan, with which Israel has full diplomatic relations, is deeper than appears on the surface, whilst the potential of economic relations between Israel and both Egypt and Jordan has also increased.
• Meanwhile, there are indications that Saudi leaders in particular are open to a more public relationship with Israel as they seek a cohesive regional bloc to counter Iran, and as the kingdom sees a generational change in its leadership.
• Whilst Saudi representatives make clear that normalisation of relations cannot happen without substantive progress on the Palestinian issue, there is reportedly a new willingness to pursue diplomacy with Israel in parallel to steps towards Israeli-Palestinian peace.
• Whilst renewed bilateral Israeli-Palestinians talks would be unlikely to yield success on their own at this point, the involvement of Arab states could provide additional incentives to Israel and political cover for the Palestinians.
• The Israeli government argues that advancing Israeli-Arab relations would be the best way to create a framework for progress with the Palestinians, whilst opposition parties call for a more progressive Israeli position on the Palestinian front to seize the opportunity for new relations with Arab states.
• Third parties, including the US and European governments, should present a united front in support of efforts to promote a regional peace process, including those of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. They should incentivise both Israel and Sunni Arab states to take steps that would unlock the potential of this moment, and avoid steps that could undermine this approach.
• As part of this process Arab states should be encouraged to invest in developing the Palestinian Authority (PA) capabilities and infrastructure in the West Bank, and stabilising the Gaza Strip, where another conflict could undermine the potential for Arab-Israeli reconciliation.
• The PA should be encouraged to see the potential of this opportunity, which has greater promise than attempts to bring about internationally imposed terms for resolving the conflict, which are likely to deepen animosity between Israelis and the Palestinians.
• Britain has the capacity to play a role in promoting this process, for several reasons. It enjoys strong bilateral relations with Israel, leading Arab states and the US, rooted in close economic and strategic relations in each case. The UK also has a reputation for balanced positions in the Israeli-Palestinian arena and for putting the interests of advancing peace ahead of its own publicity and prestige. The UK should leverage this reputation and its diplomatic influence in the Arab world to promote contacts between Israel and Arab states. Along with other third parties it should focus on practical approaches that bring interlocutors together, putting to the side considerations of garnering political or public relations benefits for itself.

The full Strategic Assessment is available as a PDF below.

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