BICOM

Key points

 

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to outline Israel’s foreign policy vision in a highly-anticipated speech on Sunday evening, 14 June (18:05 GMT).

 

• It is likely he will begin his speech by setting out Israel’s key interests. He may discuss the existential threat of Iran to contextualise the ‘clarifications’ it is speculated he will make on a two-state solution and settlements. This structure would play to his strengths, and from his point of view, would frame any policy shifts he may announce.

 

• There is an expectation that the speech will provide a clearer indication regarding key issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a future Palestinian state, settlements and the Iranian nuclear threat.

 

• The speech will seek to alleviate some of the tensions that surround these complex issues and assure the international community of Israel’s commitment to playing a constructive and positive role in the region.

 

• Prime Minister Netanyahu will face the difficult task of balancing unwavering international support for the two-state solution and the demand for a full settlement freeze, with domestic political constraints from his centre-right coalition partners.

 

• He has contributed to the extensive interest in the speech, which is both a great opportunity and a big risk for the Israeli prime minister.

 

 

 

Key elements to look for in PM Netanyahu’s upcoming speech

 

Content

 

• Structure: Sources have said it is likely that Netanyahu will begin his speech by setting out what he sees as Israel’s key interests, similar to how President Obama began his speech in Cairo. If this is the case, he could start in the macro by discussing the greatest threats to Israel, probably looking at the region and specifically Iran. It is known that this fits in with his worldview, and it is how he cast his initial pitch to Obama during his visit to Washington in May. This time, however, in a similar vein to his reported comments to Likud MKs, he is likely to discuss the existential threat of Iran to contextualise the ‘clarifications’ it is speculated he will make on the micro – that is, on a two-state solution and settlements. This structure would play to his strengths, and from his point of view, would frame any policy shifts he may announce.

 

• A vision for Israeli-Palestinian peace: Although it remains unknown what exactly will be said in his speech, it may be an opportunity for Netanyahu to present for the first time a comprehensive Israeli plan to resolve the Israeli-Arab and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. To do so, Netanyahu will have to strike a delicate balance between international support for the two-state principle and a freeze on West Bank settlement construction on the one hand, and Israel’s need to be recognised as the homeland of the Jewish people: 
• o On the two-state solution Netanyahu faces three options. A full endorsement or an outright rejection will lead respectively to confrontation with his coalition partners or the US administration, and are therefore unlikely. A third option would allow Netanyahu to adopt the principle while adding Israel’s conditions, which may include a recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and the demilitarisation of any future Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s phasing of his vision of a two-state principle will also be of importance to domestic and international audiences, as he sees a difference between “autonomy”, “self-rule”, “statehood” and other terms that may signify the future form of the Palestinian state.
• o On settlements Netanyahu will again look for a compromise formula that recognises the demand to limit construction while avoiding a full freeze on construction. The prime minister may indicate specific regions such as the Jewish suburbs of Jerusalem and the large settlements blocs of Ariel and Gush Etzion where construction may continue, while also pointing out the need to remove illegal settlement outposts and limiting construction in isolated communities.
• o Recognition of Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people has been a message the current government has been trying to convey to the international community since taking office, and the speech provides an opportunity for Netanyahu to reiterate this. This issue enjoys overwhelming support in Israel and Netanyahu will look to highlight this in an effort to garner domestic support. Netanyahu’s political convictions have been deeply affected by his father – a revisionist Zionist – and the demand for international recognition of the Jewish homeland is a reminder of this political legacy. To illustrate the relationship of the Jews to the land, Netanyahu is also likely to include references to Jewish religious sources, which will also indirectly respond to the broad use of the Quran by President Obama. Importantly, Netanyahu will highlight the historical relationship between the Jewish people and the Land of Israel, thus challenging President Obama’s focus on the Holocaust in his Cairo speech.

 

• The Iranian threat 
• o Iranian nuclear aspirationshave featured high on Netanyahu’s agenda and this is likely to be prominent in Sunday’s speech. Netanyahu is known for his strong views on the matter, and will not miss the opportunity to highlight the need for firm international action in tackling it. However, it will be interesting to see whether and how the results of Friday’s Iranian elections will feature in Netanyahu’s speech. 
• o International cooperation on the Iranian front is key, and Netanyahu may hint at the need to compromise on some issues in order to ensure a broad coalition to deal with Iran.
• o Forming a regional alliance with moderate Arab regimes has been noted as one of the pivotal messages of the current government. Netanyahu may use the speech to call on Arab regimes to take part in curbing the spread of extremist forces and play an active role in supporting the formation of viable Palestinian governance.
• o Linking Palestinian compromise with tough action on Iran may be a necessity Netanyahu will convey to his audience. In a closed-door meeting on 10 June, Netanyahu told Likud MKs, “I will be considering a lot of challenges that come from different directions, [and] that will impact generations. There are strategic threats facing Israel that require us to balance them out.”

 

 

Timing

 

• Netanyahu has been consciously adding to the expectation. The prime minister and his close circle of aides have been responsible for the international expectations that surround the speech, partly in order to dispel the sense that the prime minister lacks a comprehensive policy and a plan to move forward. Following the growing unrest expressed mostly in the international arena, Netanyahu is likely to use this speech to alleviate pressure and reposition himself as a leading figure in the regional process. 
• The Obama effect. Netanyahu’s speech is clearly an attempt to add Israel’s views and concerns to the swell of American activity in the region, which reached an important highpoint in President Obama’s speech in Cairo. As communication between Washington and the Arab capitals increases, Netanyahu sees the importance of Israel’s voice in the debate over the future of the region and of relations between Israel and the Arab countries. It is also an opportunity to rebalance his relationship with President Obama and the US administration. 
• The prominence of the Arab peace initiative. The 2002 outline of a future peace plan between Israel and the Arab world has gained increasing international prominence in the discussions over the solution to the Israeli-Arab and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. Netanyahu will not endorse the initiative, but may present some of Israel’s concerns and ‘red-lines’. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak has been calling on Netanyahu to use Sunday’s speech to present Israel’s own diplomatic initiative and respond to the Arab peace initiative. 
• Sunday’s speech is encouraging others to take a stand. Following Netanyahu’s speech, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal will also give a public address that is expected to touch on recent developments.

 

 

Location

 

• Staying away from the Knessetwill allow Netanyahu to address the nation in prime time without being interrupted or heckled by members of the opposition. 
• Bar Ilan Universityis known for its large religious-Zionist student body and is therefore a more accommodating environment for Netanyahu’s centre-right policies. For this reason, Netanyahu is unlikely to encounter critical student demonstrations as may have taken place in other major universities. 
• The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies which will host the speech is known for its affiliation with Netanyahu’s strategic positions and its director, Efraim Inbar, is a close friend of the Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor Uzi Arad. The Begin-Sadat Centre is also a symbolically appropriate venue for a centre-right leader to reach out to the Arab world with a vision of peace.

 

 

Politics

 

• Changing policy without fracturing the coalition.Domestically, any policy change that will soften Israel’s stance on the Palestinian front will encounter vocal opposition from within Netanyahu’s coalition. While most Israelis support the two-state solution, Netanyahu still faces his right-wing coalition partners and members of his own Likud party, who will oppose any dramatic concessions on settlements or a change of policy that will endorse a Palestinian state. 
• Kadima will be keenly watching. Netanyahu’s softened positions may also provide a platform for renewed political negotiations for Kadima to join the coalition. At this point, however, Livni will wait to see whether the speech presents any actual policy change before joining forces with her most notable political rival. Livni may also encounter louder calls from members of her own party – notably Shaul Mofaz, who has been advocating this for some time – to join the coalition, if Netanyahu’s speech delivers on key issues of negotiations and the two-state solution. 
• A message to the White House. Sunday’s speech will be an important opportunity for Netanyahu to reiterate Israel’s strong relations with the US and the priority it places on maintaining ties with European allies. Netanyahu is aware that the Israeli public shows little tolerance towards governments that damage the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem. Presenting Israel’s foreign policy vision will be an opportunity to alleviate some of these tensions and assure the White House of Israel’s seriousness in moving forward. Until now, Netanyahu has yet to establish a positive impression on his working relations with the American administration and President Obama in particular, and the speech is an opportunity for a ‘fresh start’ in the relations between the two leaders.

 

 

Useful BICOM links

• BICOM’s analysis on the impact of Barack Obama’s Cairo speech in Israel can be read here.
• BICOM’s analysis of the outcome of the Obama-Netanyahu meeting can be found here.
• BICOM’s analysis of the new US and Israeli policies can be found here.
• BICOM’s website section on the new Israeli government can be found here.