BICOM has just published its seventh annual forecast for the Middle East in 2022.
With more than a decade passing since the Arab Spring, the Middle East continues to suffer from long-term socio-economic, security and resource challenges. Whilst 2021 witnessed the onset of de-escalation and deconfliction moves by several states, the region started 2022 with the same uncertainty over both the future of the JCPOA nuclear deal and the US commitment to the region.
This forecast paper marks the five key issues and events that will impact the Middle East in 2022 and assesses their potential strategic consequences for the year and beyond: 1) The Nuclear Negotiations in Vienna; 2) The formation of a Plan B to stop Iranian nuclear ambitions and escalation in the Israeli-Iranian shadow war; 3) The Crisis in Lebanon; 4) The potential recalibration of alliances; 5) The expansion of the Abraham Accords.
Read the full briefing in the PDF below