BICOM

What happened on the Israel-Lebanon border?

Israel has engaged in an exchange of fire with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), there have been casualties on both sides. The IDF has accused Lebanese forces of firing on its soldiers performing ‘routine maintenance’ in coordination with UNIFIL on the Israeli side of the border.  One IDF soldier, Lt. Col. Dov Harari, was killed by the Lebanese Armed Force during this incident, and another, Capt. Ezra Lakia, sustained severe injuries. Reports say three Lebanese soldiers and a cameraman were killed after Israel returned fire. A Lebanese army spokesman stated the clashes erupted after Israeli soldiers attempted to uproot a tree on the Lebanese side of the border. Israeli sources say the IDF responded with light arms and artillery, having been fired on by a force of the LAF, and an Israel Air Force helicopter fired at the LAF Battalion Command Center in Al-Taybeh, damaging several LAF armored combat vehicles. According to one Lebanese report, the Lebanese Army fired at an Israeli tank.

What has been the situation since 2006?

Since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, in which Israel confronted the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah in South Lebanon, the situation in the north has been very quiet. There have been only a very few incidences or rocket fire from South Lebanon into Israel. Clashes between Israel and the Lebanese Armed Forces are unusual. However, the situation is unstable. At the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 called for the disarming of Hezbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in South Lebanon backed by UN forces (UNIFIL). Though the LAF has deployed with a beefed up UNIFIL force, this has not prevented Hezbollah rearming.

Israel is concerned about Hezbollah’s unchecked efforts to build up its arsenal of rockets in Southern Lebanon. Claims in April that Syria had supplied sophisticated Scud-D missiles to Hezbollah increased tensions. The situation within Lebanon itself is uncertain because of recent developments in the tribunal to find the killers of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Senior Hezbollah leaders are expected to be charged. Hezbollah frequently uses its claim to be ‘resisting’ Israel to win support and justify the existence of its independent armed forces.  Hezbollah has also long threatened to retaliate for the killing of the movement’s leading military figure, Imad Mughniyeh, in 2008, for which it holds Israel responsible.

How has Hezbollah rearmed in South Lebanon since 2006?

Prior to 2006 Hezbollah’s arsenal was mainly based in areas of open countryside. However since then, Hezbollah’s has reconstructed its military infrastructure in populated areas of the South. This practice has helped it to avoid the interference of the UNIFIL and the LAF, which are reluctant to enter populated areas. It also put the civilian population in the position of being human shields, in the case of a future conflict. On 7 July, Israel Defense Forces declassified information about Hezbollah’s deployment in populated areas of south Lebanon. Hezbollah is now believed to have 40,000 short range rockets south of the Litani River, more than before the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

What is likely to happen next?

There is no reason to believe that this situation will immediately escalate, especially as these clashes appear to have involved the Lebanese Armed Forces, and not Hezbollah. Whilst Israel is concerned about Hezbollah’s rearmament, it is not interested in provoking an escalation. Similarly, Hezbollah is aware of the devastating response it can expect were it to initiate a conflict with Israel. However, the situation to Israel’s north remains generally unstable. The backdrop of Hezbollah’s growing arsenal is leading to a slow buildup of tension. As a recent report by the International Crisis Group stated, “The parties might not want a full-scale shooting war, but under these circumstances one or the other could provoke an unwanted one.”

Further reading:

• BICOM Analysis: New light on Hezbollah’s rearmament
• BICOM Analysis: Syria and the rearming of Hezbollah
• BICOM Analysis: Hezbollah’s unchanged goals