BICOM

Early this morning a missile – reportedly a J-80, a locally manufactured missile – was fired from Gaza and hit a home in Mishmeret in central Israel, destroying the property and injuring seven members of the Wolfs, a British-Israeli family, who had less than 45 seconds to take shelter.

As a consequence, Prime Minister Netanyahu, who was in the United States for the annual AIPAC conference, cut short his trip to the United States – including a state dinner with Trump – and Israeli army reserve units have been mobilised.

Today’s attack is part of increasing escalation between Israel and Hamas: protests along the border have become more violent in recent weeks, including night-time rioting. Two missiles were fired at Tel Aviv 11 days ago – purportedly by accident. Protests in Gaza against Hamas’s rule have placed its leadership under greater pressure, making the group liable to engage in increasing hostilities to distract from domestic tensions. As with the missiles fired at Tel Aviv, Hamas has denied firing at Israel this morning, at least intentionally, and has said it is launching an investigation. But unlike in the case of the missiles fired at Tel Aviv, Israel has not accepted Hamas’s version of events.

Missile attacks from Gaza are not uncommon. But their significance should be judged based on two factors  – distance/targets and number of fatalities. Most missiles fired since 2014 targeted areas near Gaza, often landing in open spaces. In turn Israel’s response has been limited in order a) not to escalate the hostilities and b) to maintain a certain level of deterrence.

One of these factors was met – the missile was aimed well beyond the Gaza border area. Coupled with the recent missiles on Tel Aviv it therefore signals a serious escalation. It is the furthest that missiles have been fired from Gaza since the war in 2014. No fatalities were caused, but with seven injured, things could have been very different.

Netanyahu is already under pressure from both right wing and centrist parties – including 3 former Chiefs of Staff – for his handling of Gaza, including allowing Qatari money into Gaza for Hamas to pay civil servants (and most likely other uses). In an election season, the pressure on him is significant.

On his right wing, Naftali Bennett’s party the New Right, said that Netanyahu had failed against Hamas. “Releasing prisoners, the fear of destroying terrorists’ homes, showing restraint in the face of rockets fired at the south – all of this has caused Hamas to stop fearing Israel,” a party statement said. Netanyahu’s main rival, the centrist Gantz, said: “He who doesn’t respond to attacks, pays protection money to Hamas, dismisses attacks on residents of the south and takes an attack on Tel Aviv lightly now gets rockets in the centre of the country.”

While Netanyahu generally acts cautiously, he will almost certainly be forced to respond in a stronger way than any time in the last year – most likely against a large number of Hamas targets in Gaza.

Added into this dangerous mix of long-range missiles, Palestinian protests against Hamas, domestic Israeli pressure and a potential IDF response is Hamas’s plan to launch a massive protest along the Gaza border to mark the 1 year anniversary of the Great March of Return this Friday.

In this context, the potential for further escalation is very real. Much will depend on the extent of the Israeli response and the damage it causes. A spiral, tit-for-tat response is a possibility. And fatalities on either side will make it increasingly difficult to pull back from the brink.