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Comment and Opinion

INSS: The Escalation in the Palestinian Arena: Ramifications and Responses, by Kobi Michael, Udi Dekel and Assaf Orion

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Recent weeks have been marked by terrorist attacks and rioting in Jerusalem and the West Bank, as well as rocket fire from the Gaza Strip and protests by Israeli Arabs. Many observers and politicians have been quick to affix the familiar label of “intifada” to the current wave of violence. Calling the escalation a “third intifada,” however, is not an accurate portrayal of the current events, and therefore does not invite the right response to the situation. Rather, only an understanding of the particular characteristics of the current situation will allow the formulation of relevant responses.

The many systems that dominate the Palestinian arena – in Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and the regional and international arenas – are driven by independent logic and forces that at the same time interface with one another. The most prominent feature of the various Palestinian systems is terrorism, violence, and deliberate confrontation with the security forces. The struggle over the Temple Mount and Jerusalem is motivated by Palestinian concern about Israel’s alleged intention to change the status quo, and fomented by ongoing incitement by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the northern branch of the Islamic Movement. The West Bank violence features primarily actions by individuals suffering from despair and hopelessness caused by the weakness of the PA and Fatah and their crisis of legitimacy and leadership. Signs of a change in the situation of Mahmoud Abbas himself were reflected in his vitriolic speech at the UN General Assembly and his willingness to take risks in the belief that he can control the pace of events and levels of escalation, and his refusal to condemn the recent deadly terrorist attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Once he realized that he himself might be the victim of what he was instigating, he called for a cessation of violence. Added to this context is the ongoing crisis of Hamas, following the destruction in Gaza in the post- Protective Edge period.

There is a prevalent dynamic of mutual inspiration among the Palestinian systems, where the national struggle and the religious struggle are intertwined. The multi-level distress and the feeling that there is no way out of the Palestinian predicament are easily ignited by the ongoing incitement and the absence of a response from the institutional leadership. All this enhances the cognitive sense of struggle – even if thus far and in most cases, it is expressed in individual actions, rather than organized operations.

Read the article in full at INSS.