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Comment and Opinion

INSS: The economic crisis in the Palestinian Authority: Time for a strategic alert, by Michael Milstein

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The developing economic crisis in the Palestinian Authority warrants a heightened alert in Israel as to a possible strategic shift in the Palestinian system. The crisis, should it prove protracted, and all the more so should it worsen, is liable to ignite several threats concerning Israel: an expansion of the circle of Palestinians involved in violent acts, specifically civil disturbances and terrorist attacks; difficulties for the PA to provide services in the civilian realm, which could deepen the Palestinian public’s dependence on Israel; Hamas’s intensified presence and tactics in face of the PA’s weakness; and compromises in the security cooperation. The Israeli government would do well to recognize that it faces two choices – bad and worse – and it should demonstrate the same flexibility and pragmatism toward the PA that it now shows when it comes to the (still fragile) accommodation in the Gaza Strip. As with the Gaza Strip, in the West Bank this would entail compromising in return for ensuring strategic stability and a prevention of escalation that would include grave consequences for security and statecraft. Time wields decisive weight in this context. The more swiftly a solution is found, so too is the likelihood that escalation would lessen, and the more any accommodation is delayed, the more poignant is the threat of uncontrolled confrontation.

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