Recent developments indicate a shift in Turkey’s strategic outlook, which dovetails with intensive activity by Russia and China – each for its own reasons – in the Western-Asian-East European sphere, raising the possibility of long term change with extensive consequences that include ramifications for Israel. Turkey has demonstrated increased distance from the United States and the European Union on several core issues, with the most important among them the procurement – despite the objections of the US and other NATO states – of the S-400 air defense system from Russia.

The supply of the S-400 to Turkey, which began on July 12, 2019, makes it difficult for Western states to evince flexibility toward Turkish efforts to consolidate an independent foreign policy, given the broad negative ramifications of the procurement for military cooperation in NATO. In addition, there are US fears regarding the possible leak of intelligence to Russia related to sensitive technologies. Israel has a complex array of considerations in the face of the strategic changes in Turkey’s orientation.

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