BICOM

What happened: At least 100 people have reportedly been killed in several days of protests throughout Iran.

• Amnesty International yesterday accused Iranian security forces of using “excessive and lethal force” to crush the demonstrations that started on Friday after fuel prices were increased and consumption rationed. Amnesty said: “At least 106 protesters in 21 cities have been killed, according to credible reports. The real death toll may be much higher with some reports suggesting as many as 200 have been killed.”
• The office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said it was “deeply concerned” about reports of live ammunition being used against demonstrators. UN spokesman Rupert Colville said it had been “extremely difficult” to verify the overall death toll, due to a nationwide shutdown of the internet and tight media controls.
• The semi-official Fars News Agency said that “a number of outlaws” opened fire at security forces and civilians, killing one officer and wounding two other policemen in Mahshahr. Iranian authorities also claimed that the protests subsided in Shiraz and Tehran, despite several videos emerging on social media showing that violence persisted.
• To try and quell the protests, Iranian authorities are boosting monthly cash subsidies to 60 million low and middle-income people, by at least $13 per head, and orchestrating pro-government demonstrations. The new measures came amid reports that protestors burnt and destroyed banks, gas stations and security force bases in over 100 cities. Iranian authorities have not yet released details of the number of people killed or injured in the protests, but some media outlets reported that over 1,000 people have been arrested.

Context: The protests began following the government’s decision to increase the price of petrol and ration consumption, supported by the President and Supreme Leader, who said the measures reflect a broad consensus and stem from the desire to improve the situation of the poorest Iranians.

• The government’s decision marked a return to the gas rationing policy, first introduced in 2007 by former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but rescinded following the signing of the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2015. Government officials justified the measures as a means to cut distorting subsidies, lower domestic energy consumption and boost oil exports.
• The resumption of US sanctions against Iran in November 2018, as well as the end of waivers for some countries to purchase oil from Iran in May 2019, has further weakened Iran’s economy. The worsening economic crisis has now forced the government to implement some previously planned austerity measures. Expecting a public backlash, the authorities chose to announce the decision at midnight between Thursday and Friday (the day of rest in Iran).
• On Monday, Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would “confront the continuation of any insecurity and actions disturbing the people’s peace and calm in a revolutionary and decisive way”.
• Government spokesman Ali Rabiei told the semi-official news agency ISNA: “The internet will come back gradually in some provinces where there are assurances the internet will not be abused.” The judiciary spokesman, Gholamhossein Esmaeili, said on Tuesday that people who had been filming the protests and sending them to “alien and enemy networks” were being identified.

Looking forward: Iran’s leadership had taken a calculated risk by raising fuel prices to help the economy and appeared to be prepared for the backlash it would provoke: security forces were deployed rapidly; the internet was immediately cut off; and cash handouts were prepared in advance if needed. However, Iranian authorities face a complex dilemma. The government has to stick to austerity and reduce the budget deficit in response to the effects of sanctions; yet, the measures could lead to further economic hardship and intensify the popular protests.