BICOM

Negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (UK, USA, France, China, Russia and Germany) will restart today in Vienna, as the deadline for a deal is only a week away.

The United States says it aims to keep Iran a year away from “breakout capacity” – a situation where it would take Iran a year to build a nuclear bomb. Iran, in turn, seeks the end of international sanctions on the country while keeping its nuclear capacity intact.

There were reports that progress was made in expert-level talks in Muscat, Oman last week, but that the two sides are still apart and that a deal will be difficult. Yesterday, the US criticised Iran’s poor cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). An IAEA report last week suggested that Iran was failing to address evidence that it had tried to develop parts for a nuclear bomb.

At the moment, there seems to be little appetite to extend the deadline for talks beyond their Monday 24 November.

In the Independent, David Usborne points out that whatever is agreed by President Hassan Rouhani’s negotiating team, the final decision on Iran’s part will be taken by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. He also notes that the US is under pressure from representatives and senators of both parties to ensure that compromises aren’t made on how much of Iran’s nuclear programme will be allowed to continue. If they are unhappy with the deal, Congress might not be willing to allow the lifting of sanctions.

Many commentators believe that a deal is possible, but that the talks are still more likely to fail than to succeed.