BICOM

US Secretary of State John Kerry has boldly assessed that a “big transition” in Syria could be just “weeks away” after 19 global and regional powers agreed a timetable towards an eventual ceasefire and elections.

The summit in Vienna was attended by high-level Western and Arab representatives, including both Iran and Saudi Arabia, the opposing dominant regional powers. At the weekend, all 19 countries signed a United Nations statement which plots a 1 January deadline for talks between Syria’s President Assad and opposition groups. The timetable envisages a ceasefire by 14 May 2016 and free elections a year later.

However, the question of Assad’s future remains without agreement. The United States and European countries have long demanded that he play no role in Syria’s future, but may be open to him remaining in office for a transitional period. However, staunch Assad allies Russia and Iran insist that he must participate in any future elections.

Despite the uncertainty, Kerry said yesterday after talks with French President Francois Hollande in Paris, that “We are weeks away conceivably from the possibility of a big transition for Syria.” He added that there is now a “genuine process with possibilities” in place to end the Syrian Civil War, which has killed at least 250,000 people during the last four years and displaced at least half of the country’s population.

However, no Syrian representatives were present at the Vienna talks and it is still unclear whether all sides intend to accept the agreed timetable. Israel was also absent from the summit, having remained almost entirely on the sidelines of the Syrian conflict. However, Israeli leaders have made clear that enemy terror groups such as Hezbollah will not be allowed to exploit the chaos to smuggle arms. It is thought that Israel has carried out a number of air raids over Syria since the civil war began, in order to prevent such arms transfers. Israel has also periodically responded to stray fire across the Syrian border.