BICOM

What happened: An Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip overnight killed Baha Abu al Atta, a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commander responsible for multiple rocket and border attacks against Israel in recent months. In response PIJ has since early morning has fired 75 rockets at towns and cities in southern and central Israel including up to Tel Aviv and Modiin, near Jerusalem. The IDF said 20 had been intercepted by the iron dome missile defence system.

• The IDF said the killing of al-Atta was a pre-emptive strike as the PIJ leader was planning attacks in the coming days, including a complex sniper and explosive device ground operation against Israeli forces on the Israeli-Gaza border.
• Israel has closed all schools, non-essential workplaces and rail travel from the Gaza border region up to Tel Aviv, and has also shut its two border crossings with Gaza as well as limited the Gaza fishing zone to 6 nautical miles. The IDF spokesman has said it is “preparing for a number of days of fighting.”
• PIJ has vowed an “unprecedented” response to the killing of its northern brigade commander in Gaza. In a separate incident, an airstrike in Damascus, Syria overnight targeted another senior PIJ commander. It is unclear whether the commander or his family members were killed. The IDF has declined to comment on the incident.

Context: Baha Abu al Atta was reportedly responsible for at least two major waves of rocket attacks against Israel in recent months (May and August 2019), in addition to other thwarted ground attacks.

• While Abu al Atta was nominally a brigade commander his military capabilities, according to the IDF, reached across the Gaza Strip. He was also thought to be close to the more extreme PIJ leadership in Damascus as well as Iran, the group’s patron.
• Israel had issued many warnings, both public and through back-channels, to al-Atta, PIJ and Hamas demanding that the attacks stop. With that, the IDF was at pains to stress that this was not a reversion to its past policy of “targeted assassinations” but rather a “surgical strike” against a specific militant commander that it deemed a “ticking bomb.”
• The strike overnight and this morning’s escalation come at a sensitive political moment in Israel. Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party, still has eight days to form a government. He along with other senior party figures came out strongly in support of the government’s policy, still led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Netanyahu in a statement said the operation was approved by the IDF and its Chief of Staff as well as the head of the Shin Bet, and was approved by the Security Cabinet last week.

Looking ahead: After a period of restraint earlier in the morning, the IDF has begun striking Gaza from the air in response to the rocket fire. Israel’s Home Front Command is urging civilians to remain vigilant and follow orders, including staying at home. An Egyptian intelligence delegation is reportedly on its way to Israel for talks and may travel to Gaza later in the day in an effort to broker a ceasefire. The real question going forward is whether Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, will work to reign in PIJ or join in the fighting.