BICOM

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday (9/1) called for increased sanctions on Iran, during a visit to the United Arab Emirates. Clinton said that it was important to focus not on the timeline of Iranian nuclear development, but rather on the need to maintain pressure on Iran, through increased sanctions and other methods. In this regard, Clinton noted that she was confident that existing sanctions have had a ‘very significant impact.’ The remarks appeared to dismiss a recent assessment by outgoing Mossad head Meir Dagan, according to which Iran was unlikely to develop a nuclear weapons capability before 2015. She did not dispute the truth of Dagan’s remarks, which according to media reports are in line with similar assessments made by Western intelligence agencies.

The venue in which Clinton made these remarks is significant. As recent diplomatic messages published by Wikileaks have confirmed, the small Persian Gulf states are acutely concerned by the possibility of the neighbouring Iran acquiring nuclear capability. A nuclear Iran would be in a position to intimidate the Gulf countries, and to aggressively promote its interests in the exploitation of natural resources in the area, at their expense. The US is determined to underline its opposition to the Iranian nuclear programme, in order to prevent a process whereby Gulf countries begin to ‘hedge their bets’ by increasing ties with Teheran. In this regard, there have been recent concerns regarding the enforcement of sanctions by some of the Gulf States. Washington wishes to prevent a dynamic in which Iran comes to be seen as the inevitably ascending power in the area. It is thus likely that by these remarks, the US Secretary of State sought to reassure her hosts of Washington’s seriousness in its commitment to prevent a nuclear Iran.