BICOM

What happened: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz arrived in Washington last night ahead of separate meetings with US President Donald Trump to discuss the US plan for Israel and the Palestinians.

• Netanyahu will meet with Trump this morning at the White House for 90 minutes followed by Ganz for 45 minutes. Netanyahu and Trump will also meet on Tuesday and take part in a joint press conference about the US plan.
• It is still unclear whether Trump will publish the full plan or just talk about the overall vision.
• Reports in the Israeli media said the plan is likely to be weighted in favour of Israel and propose that: Israel should retain nearly all West Bank settlements and up to 30 per cent of the West Bank, have full sovereignty over all of Jerusalem (including the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif) and delay the creation of a Palestinian state. The plan is not expected to contain any proposals regarding Palestinian refugees.
• Palestinian leaders have already rejected the plan and no Palestinian leaders or officials will travel to Washington to discuss it. Jordan’s King Abdullah yesterday rejected the plan, saying: “The word ‘no’ is clear to everyone,” adding that Jordan would “absolutely refuse” to accept the US initiative.​​​​​​​

Context: The long-delayed US plan is being launched by the US five weeks ahead of Israel’s third election in a year on 2 March.

• A US official told Reuters that Israel may be given six weeks to “get this [plan] going,” adding that: “The rationale…is it depoliticises this to the point that, no matter what happens on 2 March, the two leaders of two largest parties can potentially be supportive.”
• The comment reinforced speculation that the US move was intended to provide political support to Netanyahu during, and also after, the election campaign. The US plan and the meetings in Washington have dominated the news agenda in Israel, despite a vote expected this week in the Israeli Parliament to reject Benjamin Netanyahu’s request for immunity from prosecution for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. The US initiative could also be used as the basis for the formation of a national unity government between Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White, a move Gantz rejected twice last year.
• Netanyahu invited Israeli settler leaders to join him in Washington and will reportedly provide them with updates during his talks with President Trump. Defence Minister Naftali Bennett said he and his Yamina party will refuse to recognise any Palestinian state and will stop any attempts to concede West Bank land to the Palestinians.
• Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman indicated that Netanyahu should return to Israel and pass legislation annexing the Jordan Valley, saying such a move would enjoy a majority in parliament. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the tree,” Lieberman added.

Looking ahead: The key question is how much detail from the US plan President Trump decides to share this week and whether any conditions will be placed on what Israel can do when – not if – the Palestinians reject the proposal.

• All the Israeli media have reported US proposals that appear very favourable to Israel. But will there be any US proposals that demand concessions from Israel such as ceasing settlement construction, ceding territory to the Palestinian Authority and dismantling small isolated or illegal settlements in the West Bank?
• Some reports said the US will give the Palestinians four years to return to the negotiating table.
• Palestinian leaders in the West Bank have threatened a ‘day of rage’ on Tuesday to protest against the US proposals and the Israel Defence Forces have been put on high alert in the West Bank.

Palestinian leaders have begun intensive diplomatic efforts to ensure that the EU, Arab states and other allies issue clear statements that reject the US plan and its proposals.