BICOM

Lebanon’s 14-month old unity government collapsed yesterday, after the departure of 10 ministers associated with the Hezbollah-led March 8 movement, and one ‘independent’ minister, Adnan Sayed-Hussein, resigned. The crisis was precipitated by a March 8 ultimatum to Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri that its ministers would resign by 4pm unless he agreed to convene a special cabinet session to withdraw support and funding from the UN Special Tribunal in Lebanon. The Tribunal is investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who was the father of the current prime minister. While the government of Lebanon has no authority to disband the UN-appointed tribunal, it can withdraw support from it. The Lebanese government currently pay 51% of the tribunal’s budget, and Lebanese judges are among the legal team working for it. Reports and rumours indicate that the tribunal will issue indictments in the very near future. It is considered likely that among those indicted will be Hezbollah operatives, including some relatively senior figures.

The Hezbollah decision to bring down the government follows the failure in recent days of a Saudi-Syrian attempt to resolve the crisis over the tribunal. According to Lebanese media reports, Hezbollah was proposing that Hariri order the removal of funding and the withdrawal of Lebanese judges from the Tribunal. In return, Hezbollah was to promise not to harm Hariri, and to undertake a number of relatively secondary measures, including pledging support for the 2011 budget, and assisting the Lebanese army against armed Palestinian elements outside of Palestinian refugee camps. Hariri’s refusal to comply with this proposal led to the collapse of the negotiation efforts and to the subsequent decision by March 8 to leave the government. Hariri still possesses a parliamentary majority and looks set to continue as prime minister. However, this majority is dependent on the continued support of Walid Jumblatt, the main Druze leader, who has in the last years been moving closer to the pro-Hezbollah camp.

The prospect now appears to be for continued civil disobedience by pro-Hezbollah forces, along the lines of what took place the last time March 8 ministers withdrew from the government in late 2006. This is likely to continue until Hariri either capitulates to Hezbollah’s demands or a new compromise agreement is reached. The likelihood of full blown civil war remains relatively low, because of the absence on the part of Hariri and his allies of a credible military option to face Hezbollah.

Following the decision by Hezbollah and other opposition parties to resign from the Lebanese Government, Foreign Secretary William Hague said, ‘This is an extremely serious development which could have grave implications for Lebanon and for regional stability,’ and condemned attempts to undermine the tribunal.