BICOM

The tense atmosphere in Lebanon increased last night when two grenades were thrown at the offices of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), a Christian political party. This follows the withdrawal by Hezbollah-allied ministers from the government on Wednesday. The FPM, led by former General Michel Aoun, is the main non-Shia element in the Hezbollah-led March 8 movement.

In Israel the discussion is focusing on whether this type of unrest could spill over into renewed violence against Israel. The consensus emerging from the defence establishment is that the risk level at the moment remains low, because Hezbollah will think carefully before risking a new war with Israel. Conflict with Israel would take a heavy toll on Lebanon in general and the movement’s Shia constituency in particular. Hezbollah’s actions are currently directed toward protecting its legitimacy primarily in the eyes of non-Shia Lebanese. This effort would not be helped by a military provocation against Israel, which would be seen as a transparent attempt to ‘change the subject.’

Many Lebanese analysts, including Paul Salem of the Carnegie Endowment, and Tony Badran of the Federation for the Defense of Democracies, expect that Hezbollah may attempt to step-up the pressure on Saad Hariri’s ‘caretaker’ government through demonstrations, strikes and civil disobedience, similar to those during the 2006-8 period of unrest. All eyes are on Washington, and on the extent to which the White House will offer support to Hariri in resisting Hezbollah pressure to abandon the Tribunal investigating the murder of his father, former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.