BICOM

What happened: Defence Minister Gantz revealed satellite images of four Iranian warships recently patrolling in the Red Sea.

• Gantz was speaking yesterday at the 26th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Athens. He said: “Today, we can confirm that Iran is methodically basing itself in the Red Sea, with war ships patrolling the southern region. In the last months, we have identified the most significant Iranian military presence in the area, in the past decade. It is a direct threat to international trade, energy supply, and the global economy. It is also a direct threat to peace and stability in the maritime arena, which may affect the Mediterranean and beyond.”
• Gantz referred to the event on Saturday in which Hezbollah sent three UAVs toward Israel’s Karish natural gas rig, which were downed by the IDF. He said: “This event sabotages the maritime negotiations between Israel and Lebanon over economic waters. It also shows that Hezbollah is an extension of the Ayatollahs regime – operating to destabilise the region and to cause miscalculations.”
• Gantz also noted Iran’s recent satellite launcher test. “Just a week ago, Iran conducted yet another test of a satellite launcher from Semnan province. This test demonstrates that the Iranian regime has the capabilities to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles that may reach as far as the centre of Europe. This is in addition to operational ballistic systems and UAVs that can already reach the East Med.”
• The Minister of Defence also highlighted regional cooperation with Greece, Cyprus and Egypt on national security, food security and climate change issue.

In Paris: Prime Minister Yair Lapid met with President Macron yesterday and related to similar issues.

• Lapid told Macron, “Iran is violating the agreement and continues to develop its (nuclear) programme. Iran is hiding information from the world, It is enriching uranium beyond the it is allowed to and it has removed cameras from its nuclear sites. Given all this, the world must respond.”
• Lapid also referred to Hezbollah launching the three UAVs, saying: “Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets in Lebanon aimed at Israel. Israel will not sit back and do nothing, given these repeated attacks.”
• He added: “If Hezbollah thinks it can continue with operations of that kind against the rig or other things, that is liable to lead to an unwanted deterioration. We ought to use the time to reach an agreement with Lebanon. The conditions are good and the two countries’ positions are clear.”

In Beirut: Senior figures in the Lebanese government criticised Hezbollah for the event. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said, “Any act that falls outside the framework of the state’s responsibility and the diplomatic track within which negotiations are taking place, is unacceptable and exposes (Lebanon) to unnecessary risks.”

• He also said that the maritime negotiations that have been held with American mediation are now at an “advanced state”.

Context: Despite the change in prime minister, Israel’s position over the JCPOA nuclear deal remains consistent. Like his predecessors, Lapid believes that re-entering the deal would be a mistake.

• The original agreement includes “sunset clauses” relating to Iranian access to weapons, development of missiles, advanced centrifuges and stockpiling of enriched uranium which all expire within the next decade.
• There is also concern that significant funds acquired through sanctions relief will be used to further augment Iranian regional proxies, like Hezbollah.
• Despite these reservations, Israel will continue a dialogue, particularly with the US and the E3 (UK, France and Germany) to see if a stronger agreement can be reached.
• The Red Sea represent a vital trade route for Israel to Asia and the Far East.
• Iran has sent several ships to the Red Sea over the years, claiming to protect its own commercial shipping. Last year, a suspected Iranian spy vessel patrolling the Red Sea was damaged in an apparent attack. The ship was later replaced with another suspected Iranian spy ship.

Looking forward: Lapid is understood to have asked the French president to pass on a message to the Lebanese government, highlighting the risk of future Hezbollah operations.

• If Israeli natural gas fields are attacked this could have ramifications for the supply of gas to Europe.
• There is cautious optimism that US mediation could result in an agreement between Israel and Lebanon over the disputed maritime border.
• Following the appointment earlier this year of an Israeli navy officer in Bahrain to serve as a liaison to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, Israel could join the US and regional partners in naval missions protecting vital sea routes in the Red Sea.