BICOM

What happened: On Monday Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his top security officials (for the first time since President Biden took office) to discuss Israel’s position on the anticipated resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran over returning to the JCPOA nuclear deal.

• The meeting was attended by Defence Minister Benny Gantz, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, Israeli Ambassador to the US Gilad Erdan, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Kochavi, Mossad Director Yossi Cohen and National Security Council (NSC) Director Meir Ben-Shabbat and Director General of the Ministry of Defence Amir Eshel, as well as other senior officials.
• There was no consensus reached at the meeting. According to Israeli media, a minority argued that a return to the 2015 JCPOA would be preferable to the current situation as it would prevent Iran from breaking out quickly to a nuclear bomb.
• The majority opinion was that the JCPOA is inadequate and full of holes that everything possible must be done to stop the US from re-entering that agreement.
• Yesterday, the UN nuclear agency, the IAEA released it latest report on Iran’s nuclear activities. It noted that Iran has acquired 17.6kg of 20 per cent enriched uranium, with its overall stockpile of enriched uranium now 2,967kg –
  this is 14 times higher than the limit set by the JCPOA.
• The report also noted that Iran has installed advanced IR-6 centrifuges in Fordow, which is also in violation of the JCPOA.
• The IAEA also questioned Iran over traces of enriched uranium in Turquzabad, with Iran’s explanations described as “not technically credible”. The Turquzabad site was first exposed by Netanyahu when he revealed the Mossad has discovered Iran’s “secret atomic warehouse”.

Context: The Israeli security establishment remains highly concerned over Iran’s continued regional entrenchment, which also involves supplying weapons to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. Yemen and the Gaza Strip. However, some officials believe that Israel needs to restrict its focus in the first stage solely to the contents of the nuclear agreement.

• Israeli officials have already presented to the new US administration several areas where the JCPOA could be improved. These include the expiration date of the agreement (the sunset clause), tighter inspections and restrictions on the development and manufacture of advanced missiles.
• The Commanders for Israel’s Security, made up of senior retired security officials, have independently drafted policy recommendations, sent to Netanyahu, Gantz and the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee:
  • Israel should support the American diplomatic initiative to bring Iran back into renewed compliance with the original terms of the JCPOA, UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Their consent should be subject to IAEA inspections and to commit to reversing its violations of the JCPOA.
  • Aim to reach a new and long-term agreement that would plug holes and improve weaknesses that have come to light since 2015 in the previous agreement as well as address other problematic behaviour by Iran.
  • Re-establish the Israeli-American forum for cooperating and monitoring Iranian conduct on all of the above issues, and to come up with joint responses to challenges posed by Tehran
• On Tuesday, Iran restricted the IAEA’s access of intrusive inspections to its nuclear facilities after a US refusal to lift existing sanctions. The UK, Germany and France (E3) issued a statement yesterday expressing “deep regret” over the Iranian decision. The three European signatories to the JCPOA deal with Iran said they were “united in underlining the dangerous nature of this decision”.
• The US administration announced last week that it is ready to engage in direct talks with Tehran through the P5+1 format to discuss the implementation of the pact. Iran said it was reviewing the offer but on Monday Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Iran might enrich uranium up to 60 per cent purity if needed.

Looking ahead: With no strategic decision reached, the government and security establishment’s inner forum is expected to meet again soon.

• NSC Director Ben-Shabbat will lead the interagency coordination, while each separate body will continue to engage directly with its counterparts in the US.
• The Mossad and the IDF will continue to gather intelligence and to prepare a military option.
• Israel will also continue their diplomatic engagement with the other JCPOA signatories, primarily, the UK, Germany and France.
• Despite the lack of consensus, the Israeli government is expected to enter into quiet and professional negotiations with the Biden administration and refrain from a public confrontation.