BICOM

What happened: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew out to London this morning for meetings with Prime Minister Boris Johnson as well as US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper. The snap visit was only announced yesterday afternoon.

• The official purpose of the trip is to discuss the regional security situation with an emphasis, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, on fighting off “Iran’s terror and aggression.” Netanyahu told reporters this morning that “this is not the time to talk to Iran, it’s the time to upgrade pressure on Iran.”
• Netanyahu’s meeting with US Defence Secretary Esper will be a continuation of their phone conversation from earlier this week where they discussed “Israel’s security needs.” The two decided to continue the discussion in person in London, where Esper was set to be in any event.
• US Vice President Mike Pence will also be visiting London today, although Israeli officials were unclear on whether he and Netanyahu would meet as well.

Context: Netanyahu’s meetings with Johnson and Esper will be the first since both men took on their new positions (British prime minister and US defence secretary, respectively). The visit also comes amid reports in the Israeli media that President Donald Trump may soon make a major announcement about a formal US-Israeli defence pact.

• For Netanyahu the visit is likely meant to serve his re-election campaign, with the general election less than two weeks away – burnishing the long-serving incumbent’s public reputation as a global statesman.
• The visit also comes amid French efforts to broker a détente between the US and Iran, a move Netanyahu strongly opposes. Along with France and Germany, the UK is part of the E3 group that helped negotiate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. London and its European partners publicly opposed the Trump administration’s pull-out from the agreement last year.
• The meeting with Esper comes amidst a backdrop of Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Syria and most prominently Iraq in recent weeks, targeting Iran and Iranian-allied proxy groups. The US Defence Department is known to be wary of Israeli operations in Iraq, where American troops are still stationed.
• Netanyahu’s scheduled visits to South Korea, Japan and most recently India have been cancelled. The Israeli PM did, however, fly to Ukraine last month. Reports in the Israeli media yesterday indicated that Netanyahu may visit Russia for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin before the September 17 Israeli election.

Looking ahead: Aside from the photo-ops, it is unclear what tangible steps may come out of Netanyahu’s London meetings. While Iran and regional security affairs may dominate the agenda, domestic political considerations in the UK, Israel and US may take precedence. In this sense, Netanyahu’s surprise visit may just be a prelude to other foreign trips over the next twelve days – whether to Russia or, as some speculation has it, a meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington.