BICOM

What happened: The Helios Ray, a cargo ship flying a Bahamas’ flag was damaged on Thursday night in the Gulf of Omanabout 50 miles from the capital Muscat.

• The ship, owned by Israeli businessman Rami Ungar and carrying automobiles had departed Dammam in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, bound for Singapore, before being forced to reverse course towards the dry dock facilities at Dubai’s Port Rashid.
• Ungar confirmed that the explosion made “two holes of about a meter and a half in diameter,” and that the damage was likely caused “by a missile or by mines attached to the boat”. None of the 28 crew members were hurt.
• Israel and Western maritime authorities (including British naval authorities) are investigating the attack and believe it was deliberately conducted by Iran. Israeli officials are working on the assumption that the attack was planned to ensure there would be no injuries. Some reports suggest the ship was struck by a missile, although others reports say a commando unit laid explosives on the vessel.
• On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the explosion had been caused by Iran. Netanyahu stated that Israel is “striking at Iran everywhere in the region. It will not have nuclear weapons, with or without an agreement”. Israeli Ambassador to the US, Gilad Erdan told Army Radio that “it was no secret that the Iranians are trying to harm Israeli targets” and alleged that the explosion bore the hallmarks of other Iranian attacks.
• Last night, Syrian media reported an Israeli air strike in the country. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the strike hit the area of Sayyida Zeinab south of Damascus where Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah have a presence.

Context: The alleged Iranian attack comes against the backdrop of attempts by the Islamic Republic to retaliate for the assassination of the nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which it blames on Israel.

• Over the weekend, reports emerged that Israel’s security establishment cancelled the Israeli delegation’s participation in a large defence expo that was held in Abu Dhabi due to the fears they could be a target.
• Also in the background are tensions between the US and Iran over terms to return to the JCPOA nuclear deal. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has rejected an offer by the EU to hold direct nuclear talks with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry also ruled out holding an informal meeting with the US and European powers, insisting that Washington must lift all its unilateral sanctions.
• The aftermath of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain has led to a large increase in the number of ships sailing between the Persian Gulf and Eilat.
• Iran is suspected of being behind several attacks on ships in the Gulf, including the seizure of a British tanker in the Straits of Hormuz in July 2019. The Islamic Republic is also suspected of carrying out drone attacks on Saudi Arabia from Yemen, as well as attacks on American bases and forces in Iraq.  Iran has also accused Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia of sabotaging an [Iranian] oil tanker in the Red Sea.
• Israeli intelligence officials believe that Iran has sophisticated land-based capabilities that can threaten ships at large distances from its coast, and that the Houthis in Yemen also have the capacity to attack Israeli ships at Iran’s behest.

Looking ahead: Israeli security and political officials met yesterday to discuss the best way to respond to the attack.

• Some Israeli senior security officials reportedly supported a retaliatory attack on an Iranian target while others believed that Israel should use the attack as diplomatic leverage with the US to try and ramp up the pressure Washington places on Iran over negotiations to return to the JCPOA.
• In any event, the security cabinet is exploring the option of giving commercial ships an Israeli naval escort.
• The alleged Israeli strike in Syria that targeted Iranian assets is likely connected to the attack on the cargo ship.