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What happened: Last night Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his family consulted with their lawyers on whether to accept the terms of the plea bargain agreement.

• The Ministry of Justice is waiting for Netanyahu’s decision and officials have told Israeli media that the chances of a deal are “diminishing with every passing day”. Justice Ministry officials are leaning toward agreeing to the deal if the essential core of the indictment in Case 1,000 and Case 4,000 remains in place.
• However, Netanyahu’s defence lawyer, Boaz Ben Zur, has proposed dropping the corruption charges in Case 4,000 in exchange for Netanyahu pleading guilty to fraud and breach of public trust in Case 1,000 and Case 4,000 (the Bezeq-Walla affair) and (the illegal gifts affair). Ben Zur also proposed deleting the moral turpitude charge, and in return offered that Netanyahu pledge to stay out of public life in the coming years and serve a punishment of community service for up to three months. In addition, legal proceedings in Case 2,000 (Netanyahu’s talks with Yediot Ahronot publisher Noni Mozes) would be cancelled.
• According to media reports, Sara Netanyahu changed her mind over the weekend and is now opposed to a plea bargain deal, as are Netanyahu’s two sons, Yair and Avner, who think their father should continue his legal and public battle. In contrast, the legal team are thought to be in favour of the deal.
• Over the weekend it emerged that retired Supreme Court President Aharon Barak was one of the lead mediators between the sides. Barak argued that it was in the public interest to negotiate a plea bargain rather than to continue the legal proceedings.
• Barak is quoted saying: “I couldn’t remain indifferent; we must put an end to the rift in the nation … I won’t deny that when I reached out to Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, the thought running through my head the whole time was Benjamin Netanyahu’s contribution to this country – not only his huge accomplishments over all these years, but especially the fact that until he went on trial, he was one of the great defenders of Israel’s justice system. This contribution will never be forgotten.”

Context: The key component of the plea bargain revolves around the inclusion of a moral turpitude clause. A commitment to stay out of public life is not considered sufficient.

• If the plea bargain agreement includes a moral turpitude clause, Netanyahu will have to resign from the Knesset and withdraw from politics for at least seven years, which could effectively end of his political career.
• Another area of disagreement is the condition that Netanyahu will admit to the charges of fraud and breach of trust and retract his previous claim that he was framed and persecuted by the legal system.
• Israeli media have run several polls that show most of the public is opposed to the plea bargain agreement. The lack of support includes both Netanyahu supporters who believe he is innocent, as well as Netanyahu opponents who believe he does not deserve a plea bargain.
• Nahum Barnea in Yediot Ahronot argues the deal is “too little too late”:
  • Too little: “It lacks a demand that he repay the money and benefits that he and his wife received in the context of Case 1,000. Fining him several hundreds of thousands of shekels would send the right message.”
  • “Too late? Because the campaign that Netanyahu mounted against the police and the State Attorney’s Office created a reality that denies both sides a moral basis for signing a deal. The Israelis are divided into two camps on this issue, and it would be best, as President Rivlin once said, for the court to rule on disputes of this kind, and not to resolve them by means of a deal that gets sewn up behind closed doors.”
  • “The campaign that Netanyahu mounted was without precedent. His decision to take the entire country hostage and to force it from one election to the next, without a state budget, was unprecedented. The accusations he made against the law enforcement system were without precedent either: political persecution, trumped up charges, a political coup.”
• Back in 2018, then-ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked pushed for legislation of an “override clause” that would have allowed the Knesset to override a Supreme Court decision to strike down legislation passed in the Knesset. Ahead of the vote in the Ministerial Committee for Legislation, Netanyahu met with Barak, who convinced him to block the initiative.

Looking ahead: A deal must be reached within the next two weeks before the current Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit steps down.

• In the event of a deal, the Likud Central Committee will choose an acting leader for the party for up to three months. They will then set a date for a party leadership contest, where all party members (around 130,000 people) will choose the next leader.
• Several MKs are expected to compete, including Nir Barkat, Yisrael Katz, Yuli Edelstein, Tzachi Hanegbi, Avi Dichter and Miri Regev.
• In this scenario, the stability of the current government will also come under closer scrutiny, as right-wing members of the government could theoretically form an alternative coalition without triggering a general election.