BICOM

What happened: US President Donald Trump has said he would be prepared to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani “if the circumstances were correct”.

• It comes after Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javid Zarif made an unexpected visit to the G7 meeting in France over the weekend and French President Emmanuel Macron said that the “conditions for a meeting” between Trump and Rouhani to take place “in the next few weeks” had been created through intensive diplomacy and consultations.
• Asked by reporters if he thought the timeline proposed by his French counterpart sounded realistic, Trump replied that “it does,” adding: “I think he’s [Rouhani] going to want to meet. I think Iran wants to get this situation straightened out.”

Context: Since Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement in May 2018, France along with the UK and Germany have tried to preserve it. Over the last month, Iran has put more pressure on the Europeans to provide sanctions relief by breaching some limits set out in the JCPOA to its nuclear programme such as increasing its enriched uranium stockpile. As US sanctions continue to weaken the Iranian economy, the attempt by President Macron to organise a meeting between Trump and Rouhani appears to be a final attempt to try and save the nuclear deal.

Looking ahead: The change in tone from Washington came as Israel launched a series of strikes against Iranian personnel and Iranian affiliated militias in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video last night saying that: “Iran is acting in a broad front to produce murderous terror attacks against Israel.” Netanyahu vowed that “Israel will continue to defend its security by any means necessary,” and urged “the international community to act immediately to ensure Iran stops these attacks”. Israel’s Channel 12 News said that Trump’s new conciliatory tone towards Iran deals “a critical blow to Netanyahu’s narrative that he and Trump are completely in step on Iran,” but added that there was some interest from Israeli officials for Trump renegotiating the terms to the nuclear deal now, rather than run the risk of a democrat entering the White House in 2020 and re-joining the JCPOA.