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Trump to unveil Israeli-Palestinian plan

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What happened: President Donald Trump yesterday invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to the White House next Tuesday for talks ahead of the publication of the long-delayed US plan for Israel and the Palestinians.

  • Israeli sources leaked alleged details of the plan, creating the impression of an initiative heavily tilted in Israel’s favour.
  • The plan apparently proposes that all Israeli settlements in the West Bank will remain in place and become Israeli sovereign territory, with territorial contiguity between all of them apart from a small number of isolated locations. All of Jerusalem would remain under Israeli sovereignty, with some outlying neighborhoods of East Jerusalem ceded to the Palestinians and a Palestinian state will be created in future, but only if Hamas disarms and the Palestinians recognise Israel as a Jewish State. Additional reports said that 30 per cent of the West Bank would become part of Israel, with some parts of Area C ceded to the Palestinians.
  • While meeting US Vice President Mike Pence yesterday, Netanyahu said: “We have had no better friend than President Trump. With this invitation [to the White House], I think that the president is seeking to give Israel the peace and security that it deserves.”
  • Both Pence and Netanyahu said it was the Israeli Prime Minister’s idea to also invite Benny Gantz to the White House, in order to “create as broad a consensus as possible” surrounding the plan.
  • A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said: “If this deal is announced with these rejected formulas, the leadership will announce a series of measures in which we safeguard our legitimate rights, and we will demand Israel assume its full responsibilities as an occupying power.”

Context: The US plan has been delayed many times in the past year, primarily because of Israel’s political deadlock. The announcement by the Trump Administration comes six weeks before the Israeli election and is viewed overwhelmingly as a political move intended to support Benjamin Netanyahu’s election campaign.

  • Most Israeli commentators, and even sources in the Blue and White party, viewed the White House invitation as a likely “trap” laid by Netanyahu and US officials for Benny Gantz who faces the dilemma of either looking like Netanyahu’s right wing sidekick or opposing aspects of the plan and looking like a politician from the left.
  • It is likely not a coincidence that the White House summit next Tuesday falls on the same day as a decisive Knesset vote regarding Netanyahu’s request for parliamentary immunity from prosecution for bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
  • Given Gantz’s recent bid for right-wing votes, he will find it difficult to oppose the US initiative – yet annexation of settlements will not play well with Blue and White’s overwhelming centre-left base. Netanyahu may use what he has called the “historic opportunity” afforded to Israel by the Trump Administration to pressure Gantz into a national unity government.
  • No Palestinian leaders have been invited to Washington next week. Addressing the issue yesterday, Trump said: “We’ve spoken to them briefly. But we’ll speak to them in a period of time…they have lot of incentive to do it. I’m sure they maybe will react negatively at first, but it’s actually very positive to them. We took away their money. That’s a lot of money for them.”

Looking ahead: If the details of the US plan are close to what has been reported, then no Palestinian or Arab government and very few Europeans will support it.

  • The Trump administration officials working on the plan have spoken in the past about using it to reframe the issue and create a new set of assumptions for future US policy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This suggests they don’t necessarily believe the plan will achieve a conflict resolution and are more interested in smashing the US consensus since 2000 on what the outlines of an Israeli-Palestinian deal should look like.

Some media reports have suggested that Palestinian rejection of the plan may be utilised as a justification and potential green light for the Israeli Government to apply Israeli sovereignty to settlements in the West Bank and land in the Jordan Valley, as promised by Benjamin Netanyahu. Any move in that direction will create immediate tension with the Palestinian Authority, Jordan and Hamas in Gaza and be subject to a legal challenge in Israel.