BICOM

• It is the first high-level visit by a top American official since US President Joe Biden was sworn in last week.
• General McKenzie will participate today in a panel led by the Chief of the General Staff, which will include the Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Head of the Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman, the Head of the Strategic Planning and Cooperation Directorate, Maj. Gen. Tal Kelman, and the Israeli Defense Attaché in Washington, Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fox.
• Yesterday he planted a tree alongside IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, to celebrate the 15th Shvat, the Jewish new year for trees.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen Aviv Kochavi said yesterday: “Military and strategic relations between the US and Israel have, for many years, been a critical component in establishing Israel’s national security and its advantage over its enemies, wherever they are. This partnership has a key role to play in dealing with our common threats, especially the Iranian threat.”
• Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz spoke with his American counterpart, Lloyd James Austin III, in an introductory call yesterday. Gantz highlighted the importance of confronting Iranian aggression to ensure regional stability and underlined the centrality of ongoing dialogue and strategic coordination at every level of interface between the two defence establishments.
• Secretary Austin reaffirmed the strength of the US-Israel defence relationship and reiterated the US commitment to maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge.

Context: In the last days of President Trump, the US moved Israel from the jurisdiction of the European Command (EUCOM) in the US military to the Central Command.

• The switch was made as relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim states have normalised in the past year.
• Israeli officials have long said the move to CENTCOM is of strategic significance for Israel and will allow for closer coordination and cooperation with the US military, particularly with a focus on Iran.
• There is concern that Prime Minister Netanyahu could clash with President Biden, as he did with President Obama over the Iranian nuclear issue.
• However, this week a senior Israeli official told Walla News that Prime Minister Netanyahu prefers a dialogue and does not want to clash with the new US administration. The sources posited that there was a fundamental difference, when the Obama administration engaged in a secret channel of dialogue with the Iranians behind Israel’s back, whereas Biden has shown good will and has said from day-one that he intends to consult with Israel before making any decisions on the Iranian issue.
• Another factor is Netanyahu strong personal relationship with Biden for four decades.
• Netanyahu’s position is also balanced out by Defence Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, both of whom have advocated that Israel engage in quiet dialogue with the Biden administration about the nuclear agreement with Iran.
• The IDF is also strongly opposed to the US returning to the JCPOA agreement. In a speech earlier this week, Chief of Staff Kochavi said such a move would be a strategic mistake and announced that he was preparing military operations against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
• Amos Yadlin, former head of Military Intelligence, wrote in Foreign Affairs yesterday that the Biden administration should first pause Iran’s nuclear activity with an interim agreement, and then enter into another round of talks to vastly improve the current JCPOA. In the interim, Washington should coordinate efforts among regional partners to expose and interdict Iranian shipments of materiel to proxies and disrupt planned attacks. In addition, the White House should promote cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states on missile defence.

Looking ahead: Israel’s integration at CENTCOM will strengthen intelligence-sharing on operations in the Middle East with long-standing allies such as the UK and France.

• It will also create the conditions for the beginnings of military and defence cooperation with the states that have recently normalised their relations with Israel, such as the UAE and Bahrain.
• Talks between the US and Israel over Iran are expected to begin within the next few weeks. It is believed that Netanyahu will send Mossad Head Yossi Cohen to Washington to provide Israeli red-lines on Iran’s nuclear programme.