Photo by Avi Ohayon (GPO)
What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu left last night for a series of diplomatic meetings in the US.
- Later in the week he will meet with several world leaders including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Scholtz, and President Erdogan of Turkey, but the most important meeting will be with President Biden.
- The Biden meeting is expected to focus on the continued Iranian threat and their advance towards nuclear weapons, and the potential for a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia.
- Over the weekend the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran is preventing some of the Agency’s inspectors from visiting their nuclear sites.
- According to Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA, “These inspectors are among the most experienced… with unique knowledge in enrichment technology.”
- He continued, that in light of this decision, “Iran has effectively removed about one third of the core group of the Agency’s most experienced inspectors designated for Iran.”
- Grossi “strongly condemn[ed] this disproportionate and unprecedented unilateral measure which affects the normal planning and conduct of Agency verification activities in Iran and openly contradicts the cooperation that should exist between the Agency and Iran.”
- As he departed last night Netanyahu affirmed that “Iran is violating all of its commitments, that it brazenly lies, and that it intends both to develop nuclear weapons and continue its aggression in the region. We will confront both of these together. I heard the threats from an official of the Iranian regime today. I suggest that he not threaten us. He and this regime need to know that we will respond forcefully to any attack on our people and our citizens.”
Domestic protests: The protests against the government’s legal reforms and the perceived threats to Israeli democracy continued last night for the 37th consecutive week.
- As well as the familiar locations protestors gathered at the airport as Netanyahu and his wife left for the US.
- Crowds of Israelis and liberal supporters of Israel are expected to protest against Netanyahu during his visit.
- Netanyahu related to the prospect, as he boarded his plane saying, “Nothing surprises me anymore about these demonstrations. The people organising the protests are equipped with a lot of money and the demonstrations are bankrolled and organized, which cross all boundaries.”
- Netanyahu complained that blocking roads, the violent harassment of public figures and refusing military call ups have all become normal. He added: “To me, it isn’t normal. When I was chairman of the opposition, I never did that. And I can tell you that I, as prime minister, will be appearing before the UN for I believe the twelfth time. I recall there being demonstrations for Israel and demonstrations against Israel. But this time we’re seeing demonstrations against Israel by people who are joining forces with the PLO, Iran and others.”
- MK Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity Party responded on Army Radio this morning saying, “This was a wretched comment. I hope that he retracts and realises what he said. He said something very serious. I assume that if he were to walk around among the people in the demonstrations, as I do, he would see outstanding people, patriots who are acting to save the country. To say that they joined forces with Iran is to go off the rails. I very much hope he comes to his senses.”
- The prospect of protests are one of the reasons Netanyahu will not be meeting Biden in Washington. Biden is concerned about the nature of the reforms and wants to avoid the optics of Israeli supporters protesting in DC.
Context: Netanyahu has placed great importance on meeting with President Biden, primarily due to continued concerns over Iran and the possibility of the US facilitating a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.
- Netanyahu has not yet met with President Biden since he won the election in November 2022.
- The announcement from the IAEA is the latest effort by Iran to prevent the international community from effectively monitoring their nuclear project.
- Last week the IAEA released their most recent quarterly report that confirmed that Iran is continuing to increase its stockpiling of 60% enriched uranium, albeit at a slower pace, but close to weapons grade.
- The agency also noted concern over Iran’s continued use of advanced centrifuges as well as lacking an explanation over the existence of illicit traces of uranium found at undeclared nuclear sites.
- Israel was not surprised by the latest IAEA announcement, but Netanyahu will use his meeting to enhance coordination with Biden on the steps that need to be taken against Iran.
- On Friday US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Biden would focus on “shared democratic values between the United States and Israel and a vision for a more stable and prosperous and integrated region.”
- The Biden administration is making the connection between diplomatic advances and the Netanyahu government’s domestic agenda.
- Netanyahu’s leverage over Biden rests on his influence over Republican representatives giving Biden support for a deal.
- The visit coincides with a Saudi media report suggesting that the Saudis have decided to freeze talks with Israel on normalisation as they fear the current Israeli government will be unable to make the necessary concessions to the Palestinians. However, White House officials denied the report.
- For more details on the contours of a deal see BICOM’s research paper, Towards Israel-Saudi Normalisation? For the latest perspective from the Gulf listen to our latest podcast.
Looking ahead: Netanyahu’s first stop will be to meet Elon Musk in San Francisco later today. On Netanyahu’s agenda will be to discuss artificial intelligence with him and encouraging him to invest in Israel.
- Later today Netanyahu and Musk are expected to interview each other live on X (Twitter).
- On Friday Netanyahu will address the UN General Assembly for the first time since 2018 and is expected to highlight both the Iranian threat and opportunities to widen the circle of peace.
