BICOM

Summary

Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz have emerged as the main candidates in the Kadima primary, which is due to take place on 17 September. Significant differences of tone and emphasis exist between the two candidates on policy issues. But there is no truly major rift between them on the key areas of Iran, the Palestinians and Syria. Livni, while considered more centrist, has not committed herself on the extent of her willingness for territorial compromise with either the Palestinians or the Syrians. Mofaz, while considered more hawkish, meanwhile, is also not opposed in principle to the negotiations – though he considers that talks on final status issues are currently doomed to failure. Consequently, the issue of personality and the personal record of the candidates will undoubtedly play a major role.  It has been said that Livni will be the candidate of ‘peace and security’ while Mofaz will be the candidate of ‘security and peace.’ While this may exaggerate the absence of meaningful differences between the two, it reiterates the extent to which personality will play a key role in defining the results. The latest polls suggest that Livni stands a far better chance of defeating Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in a general election.

Last week, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that he would not be competing in the primary elections in the ruling Kadima Party, scheduled to take place on 17 September. [i] The key issues now are who will replace Olmert, and will the new Kadima leader succeed in forming a governing coalition, or is the basic implication of the prime minister’s announcement that new general elections are now inevitable? This document will look at the key players in the race for the leadership in Kadima, examine the process whereby the elections will take place and the winner attempt to form a new coalition, and will conclude by suggesting some pointers as to the likely run of events.

The players

The two key contenders for the Kadima leadership are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transport Minister (and former IDF Chief of Staff) Shaul Mofaz.[ii] Polls over the weekend put Livni two percentage points ahead of Mofaz. Two other senior figures in the party are standing in the elections – Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit. Neither of the latter two, however, are considered to possess a serious chance of winning the leadership.

Thus the contest is between Livni and Mofaz.  So who are these two contenders for Israel’s leadership?

Foreign Minister Livni is the daughter of a prominent right-wing Israeli family whose father, Eitan Livni, was the operations officer of the Irgun Tsvai Leumi organisation[iii], and who was considered close to Likud founder Menachem Begin. Her mother was also an activist with this group. Livni is a successful lawyer, who served for a short period of time in the Mossad intelligence agency, and who began her political career in the Likud. Livni’s parentage means she is considered a ‘princess’ of the Israeli right – the term used in Israel to refer to the daughters of the founding political and military activists of this camp.

She served as minister for Immigrant Absorption in Ariel Sharon’s first government. Livni was considered to be among the senior politicians closest to Sharon. Her closeness to him, particularly in terms of the central ideas underlying the formation of Kadima, and her decision to move with Sharon to the new party, are seen as important elements in explaining her rapid rise in politics. Like Sharon, Livni has made the journey from an uncompromising, hawkish position to a willingness to enter negotiations toward a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. She was initially associated with the proposed strategy of unilateralism with which the party was identified.  Livni was appointed foreign minister after the Kadima election victory in March 2006, and served in this position during the Second Lebanon War in that year. In this position, she has also been serving as the head of the Israeli team in the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority begun after the Annapolis Conference. In a political system widely regarded by the Israeli public as riddled with nepotism and widely corrupt, Livni is seen as possessing integrity and genuine commitment. This ‘Mrs. Clean’ image is a major part of the broad public appeal she possesses.

Livni is associated with a pragmatic, centrist outlook. She is generally credited with success in her position as foreign minister. There have been some questions raised, in this regard, concerning her relations with ministry officials and employees. Livni is also widely seen as one of the few ministers to have emerged untainted from the Second Lebanon War. She faced some criticism, however, for her decision not to resign after the war, despite her criticism of Ehud Olmert. There are those now who would say that Livni’s decision not to resign may have formed a part of a broader strategy which may yet pay dividends. Adherents to this view would also say that this indicates that Livni is a more hard-nosed and canny politician than she is sometimes given credit for being.  

However, in a country accustomed to leaders who enter office having already amassed broad experience in national security affairs, her resume is considered to be light. This is likely to be the main line of attack against her – both in the Kadima primary and, if she wins this, in the subsequent general election. This will be the case particularly because the failures of the Second Lebanon War are widely associated in the public mind with the relative inexperience in national security affairs of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and then defence minister Amir Peretz.

Shaul Mofaz is a former IDF chief of staff whose name is associated with Operation Defensive Shield in 2002.  This operation – which saw Israeli forces striking into the West Bank at the height of the Second Intifada – is considered to have been a vital moment in the defeat of the campaign of terror against Israel launched in 2000. The Iranian-born Mofaz entered politics and the Likud party directly after his demobilisation from the IDF.  Mofaz was the last major Likud politician to defect to Kadima upon its foundation.  He took the decision to move only after he had unsuccessfully competed against Benjamin Netanyahu for the Likud leadership.  Although known to have been close to Sharon, Mofaz was associated with the more hawkish wing of Likud.  Since there was a clear shortage of senior military figures in Likud after the split, it was initially considered likely that Mofaz would stay in the party and play this role.  At the last minute, however, he chose to come over to Kadima.  His late decision is considered the reason for his currently occupying the relatively junior position of transport minister. 

Mofaz remains associated with a hawkish outlook. He has been particularly vociferous on the issue of the Iranian nuclear programme. On two occasions in the last few months, he has expressed support for the possibility of military action against Iran, in the event that sanctions fail to induce the Iranians to abandon their nuclear programme.[iv] Mofaz is known to be sceptical regarding the possibility of the negotiations with the PA leading to a successful outcome. He has been noted among the supporters of a major IDF military operation into Gaza (as is Livni).

Therefore, it is important to note that while Kadima has often been characterised as a ‘post-ideological’ party of nebulous outlook, the September elections do represent a genuine contest between two politicians representing notably opposing views on some issues.  The party was born with a very specific idea – that of unilateralism – though this is no longer relevant to the Israeli policy discussion. Yet Kadima remains a party united by a broadly centrist vision, which accepts the need for territorial compromise, while retaining a pragmatic caution regarding the intentions of Israel’s neighbours, which it sees as differentiating it from the parties to its left. While it was initially built around the dominant political presence of founder Ariel Sharon, Kadima appears to have survived his departure from the stage, and looks set to establish itself as a distinctive centrist presence in Israeli politics.  

Procedure and current polls

On 17 September, 62,000 registered members of Kadima will be permitted to vote in primary elections for the party’s leadership. The winner will then set about attempting to form a new governing coalition.  In this period, Prime Minister Olmert will remain in office as a ‘caretaker’ prime minister. If no new governing coalition is founded within 42 days, then President Shimon Peres may allow additional time, or may choose to allow another party leader to attempt to form a coalition. If neither of these actions is taken, then elections must be held within 90 days.[v]

Mofaz is considered more likely than Livni to attempt, and is considered more likely to succeed in forming a new coalition with the current Knesset. He is more likely to attempt it because whereas Livni is more likely to wish to go straight to elections because of her higher public standing, Mofaz is more likely to wish to preserve the current coalition, because he is considered less able to beat Netanyahu.  He is considered more able to preserve the coalition because of the issue of the Sephardi (Jews of non-European origin) ultra-orthodox Shas party. Mofaz, who would be the first realistic prime ministerial candidate of non-European origin in Israel, has forged a close relationship with Shas.[vi] Livni, the first female contender for the prime ministership since Golda Meir, meanwhile, has a particularly difficult task in building relations with Shas.  The spiritual leader of the party, Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, is known to oppose the idea of a woman prime minister, and hence may refuse to allow the party to join a coalition led by Livni. Mofaz has spoken of the formation of a government of ‘national emergency’ and his claim of a greater ability to form such a government is likely to form a key part of his campaign. [vii]

However, if elections are called, all polls indicate that Livni enjoys a clear advantage over Mofaz in terms of broad public support. According to a Dialog poll conducted over the weekend for the Haaretz newspaper, Kadima led by Livni would win elections if they were hold now, scoring 26 seats for Kadima against 25 for Likud. The same poll found that if Kadima were led by Mofaz, Kadima would win only 19 seats, against 29 for Likud. Two other polls taken over the weekend found that Likud would emerge from elections as the largest party, but both of these also found that Kadima under Livni would perform significantly better than under Mofaz.[viii] 

Issues

The election campaign is already under way. The polls published over the weekend are currently dominating the discussion – since they are seen as representing a significant dent in the perception since mid-2006 of a near certain victory for the Likud in the next elections. This dent, the polls suggest, exists on the condition that Livni leads Kadima, and as such, they are considered to have given her a considerable boost.

While significant differences of tone and emphasis exist between the two candidates on policy issues, there is no truly major rift between them on the key areas of Iran, the Palestinians and Syria. Livni, while considered more centrist, has not committed herself on the extent of her willingness for territorial compromise with either the Palestinians or the Syrians. Mofaz, while considered more hawkish, is also not opposed in principle to the negotiations – though he considers that talks on final status issues are currently doomed to failure. Consequently, the issue of personality and the personal record of the candidates will undoubtedly play a major role. It has been said that Livni will be the candidate of ‘peace and security’ while Mofaz will be the candidate of ‘security and peace’. While this may exaggerate the absence of meaningful differences between the two, it captures the extent to which personality will play a key role in defining the results. Currently, Mofaz’s camp is seeking to undermine Livni’s claim of particular closeness to former prime minister Sharon. Such issues of perception are likely to form a major part of the campaign. The current form they are taking reflects Livni’s status as favourite, and the perception that the Kadima leadership campaign is ‘hers to lose.’

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[i] Gil Hoffman, ‘Olmert: I’ll resign after Kadima primary,’ Jerusalem Post, 30 July 2008. www.jpost.com

[ii] Toni O’loughlin, ‘Battle for power: the candidates who could succeed Ehud Olmert as Israel’s prime minister,’ Guardian, 30 July 2008. www.guardian.co.uk

[iii]  The Irgun Tsvai Leumi was a paramilitary organisation which fought against the British Mandatory authorities in what was then Mandatory Palestine in the period 1944-48.

[iv] ‘Mofaz on Iran: we wont allow a second Holocaust to occur,’ Haaretz, 3 August 2008. www.haaretz.com

[v] David Makovsky, ‘Olmert’s announcement fuels uncertainty in Israel,’ Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy, 31 July 2008. www.spme.net

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] ‘Mofaz: I’d opt for a broad coalition,’ Jerusalem Post, 31 July 2008. www.jpost.com

[viii] Three poll show Livni heading Kadima 20-26 seats vs. 25-33 for Likud,  IMRA, 1 August 2008. www.imra.org.il