The timing of the news out of Saudi Arabia was unexpected. But the die had been cast and the result was inevitable: King Salman’s son, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), was elevated to Crown Prince, displacing his older cousin, Muhammad bin Nayef (MBN). Like monarchs everywhere, Saudi kings favor passing the throne to their direct descendants.

Given his youth (31) and the advanced age of his father, MBS could rule for decades. For the United States and Israel, his elevation contains both considerable promise and some peril. Both countries will need to be opportunistic, employ deft diplomacy, and stand firm for their key interests to maximize the former and minimize the latter.

MBS has already established himself as a reformer and a modernizer, far bolder than any previous Saudi leader.

While MBN was known to be a steady and reliable partner of the United States, particularly in counterterrorism, he is from an older, more conservative generation, and it is nearly inconceivable to imagine him tackling the major social and economic reforms championed by MBS: privatization of Aramco, cutting subsidies to force more Saudi citizens into the workforce, upgrading the professionalism of the Saudi armed forces, increased opportunities for women, and modern entertainment options. MBS’s openness to new ideas is encouraging, and could, over the course of years, presage dramatic changes in Saudi society and its relationship with the world.

Strategically, MBS is inclined toward leadership of the moderate Sunni Arab states. He has forged a particular bond with the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, Muhammad bin Zayed, and has emerged as strong backer of Egypt’s President Abdelfattah al-Sisi.  What unites all these players is their antipathy toward both Iran and the radical Shia axis it leads, and Sunni Islamist movement from the Muslim Brotherhood to al-Qaida to ISIS.

Read the full article in Haaretz.