The recent escalation between Israel and Hamas took place in the context of the efforts to reach an arrangement on Gaza: what amounts to negotiations concomitant with fire, with Hamas demonstrating that it does not fear large scale escalation and is not under pressure to reach an arrangement with Israel at any price. For its part, Israel continues to convey that it does not seek escalation, but cannot exercise restraint in the face of Hamas’s aggression. The deep distrust between Israel and Hamas and the absence of a mechanism for preventing miscalculation, together with the readiness to use force, lessen the chances of an arrangement and increase the risk of escalation. It is difficult to believe that Hamas will achieve what it seeks – an ease of the closure on Gaza and economic and infrastructure projects in the area – without making the key concessions demanded of it: returning the Israeli prisoners and soldiers’ bodies that it holds, and implementing a mechanism that will prevent it from continuing its military buildup. At the same time, success by Hamas will strengthen its standing in the Palestinian arena, consolidate its sovereignty in the Gaza Strip, weaken the Palestinian Authority, and deepen the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The cyclical dynamic in the Gaza Strip has once again reached the brink of conflict between Israel and Hamas. The fundamental situation in the Gaza Strip, which has not changed over the past decade, features ongoing and severe economic, infrastructure, and humanitarian distress that Hamas, with the help of international elements, seeks to escape, while saddling Israel with the responsibility. As for a long time these efforts produced no results, the situation propels Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip toward military escalation with Israel.

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