BICOM

Key points

• US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to give a series of key policy addresses in the US in the next few days.
• The two administrations have been coordinating their positions in high-level talks between Israeli and American officials, but it is still unclear whether a common agenda has been agreed and reflected in the public addresses.
• The context of the Israeli-US diplomatic dialogue has been changed by the recent Palestinian unity agreement between Hamas and Fatah. The hope of a rapid renewal of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations has been replaced by significant diplomatic challenges of Palestinian unity and regional unrest.

When are the speeches going to be made?

• Thursday, 19 May– President Obama will make speech to State Department.
• Friday, 20 May– Obama-Netanyahu scheduled to meet at the White House.
• Sunday, 21 May– Obama will address American-Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC)
• Monday, 22 May– Netanyahu to address AIPAC.
• Tuesday, 23 May– Netanyahu addresses a joint session of the US Congress.

 What is the context of the speeches?

• The stalemate in the diplomatic process between Israelis and Palestinians has led to an intensive search for alternative routes of action, and sharp disagreements between international actors.
• The Palestinians seem reluctant to return to direct negotiations and determined to seek UN recognition of statehood in September.
• In the absence of direct talks, Britain, France and Germany (EU3) have sought to present international terms of reference (TOR) initially through the quartet. However, this ambition was thwarted by the US with the postponement of the last Quartet meeting. In response to subsequent EU pressure and in an effort to prevent a Palestinian motion in the UN, President Obama was considering presenting TOR on a final-status Israeli-Palestinian deal.
• However, the deal struck between Hamas and Fatah adds significant diplomatic hurdles and shifts the focus of this week’s speeches.

What is Netanyahu’s position heading to Washington?

• Prior to the Palestinian unity agreement, Netanyahu was planning a speech that would focus on Israel’s positions in the peace process. It was widely speculated that this might include a proposal to transfer more West Bank territory to the Palestinians and other interim measures that would advance the situation pending a final status agreement.
• Before the announcement of a Palestinian unity deal, Netanyahu’s aim was to show Israel’s seriousness in the peace process, to find a common position with the US, to relieve international pressure on Israel and shift international pressure on to the Palestinians to return to negotiations.
• Following the announcement of a Palestinian unity deal between Hamas and Fatah, Netanyahu indicated there can be no talks with a Palestinian leadership that includes Hamas. He is unlikely to propose transferring more powers or territory at this time of uncertainty. Instead, the emphasis will be placed on Palestinian acceptance of the Quartet principles as a precondition for entering the peace process.
• He is also likely to stress the extent to which regional changes reinforce Israel’s legitimate security concerns. In his address to the Knesset on Monday (16/5), Netanyahu noted how the breach of the Israeli-Syrian border by Palestinian refugees earlier this week illustrated the risks posed to Israel by regional unrest.
• Monday’s speech also pointed to six policy principles that the Israeli PM may present in Washington:

o Palestinian recognition of Israel as the national homeland of the Jewish people is paramount to achieving peace.

o An agreement between Israel and the Palestinians must end the conflict and end further demands from the State of Israel

o The problem of Palestinian refugees will be resolved outside of Israel and not within its borders.

o A future Palestinian state can only be established under a peace treaty that will not compromise the safety of Israel. Netanyahu thus rejected a Palestinian unilateral move in the UN and highlighted the need for future demilitarisation of the Palestinian state and an IDF presence in the Jordan Valley.

o The main settlement blocs must remain inside the borders of the State of Israel. Netanyahu thus hinted that settlements outside the blocs would be evacuated.

o Jerusalem will remain the united and sovereign capital of the State of Israel. Netanyahu did not directly refer to the Arab neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem.

What do we know about Obama’s position?

• Obama’s speech on Thursday is expected to address developments in the Middle East in general, and particularly outline US policy in the Middle East in light of the popular unrest sweeping the region and the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
• According to senior Obama administration sources there has been an ongoing debate in Washington regarding US engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Particularly, there were opposing views on whether President Obama should propose terms of reference for a final-status Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
• The Palestinian unity agreement significantly reduces the likelihood of clear American terms of reference. The administration will be waiting to see the composition of the new PA government and the positions of the Palestinian leadership before making a bold push for the resumption of talks.
• In his policy speech on Thursday, President Obama may reiterate the US’s commitment for the establishment of a Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem as the future capital of both states and the administration’s opposition to settlement construction. Some of these statements may be at odds with those of PM Netanyahu.
• The President is also likely to restate American objection to a unilateral Palestinian appeal for UN recognition of statehood in September. The US has consistently called on the parties to resolve their disagreements around the negotiation table.
• The US political system is also starting to look ahead towards the 2012 presidential elections. In formulating his message, President Obama will also take into consideration his re-election bid and his effort to avoid the public rows that accompanied Netanyahu’s previous visits to Washington.

What are the expected outcomes?

• The Palestinian unity deal changes expectations ahead of President Obama and PM Netanyahu’s meeting and speeches in the coming days.
• If, as expected, the President avoids outlining clear US TOR, there will be more pressure on EU3 to present its own diplomatic initiative. This, in turn, could broaden the gap between the US and EU.
• The Gaps between Israelis and Palestinians remain significant and the renewal of direct talks unlikely in the foreseeable future, and unfolding events in the region only serve to deepen the diplomatic impasse.
• This week’s speeches will provide an important indication as to Israeli and American policies in the coming months. Primarily, it will be of interest to see whether the US President will outline the future path for US involvement in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. It will also be interesting to see how the President balances US demands from both sides.

Netanyahu’s speech will seek to balance international expectations for an Israeli diplomatic initiative with strategic concerns to Israel’s security in a changing region. His speech will also take into account his political base, which will oppose far-reaching compromises.