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What happened: Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman this morning denied rumours that he might reverse his previous position and join a Netanyahu led right wing – ultra-Orthodox Government.

• Lieberman said on Twitter: “This morning, I heard and read about the night of nonsense journalism about Yisrael Beitenu’s so-called plans: compromises on religion and state, joining a bloc or the like. These reports have no grasp of reality and no foundation and are the responsibility of the writers and commentators only!”
• Speculation mounted yesterday when the weekly Yisrael Beitenu party meeting was closed to the media and Lieberman declined to do his usual press conference. The party then released a statement that Lieberman would be consulting with party officials and local Government leaders and would announce next steps at the end of the week.

Context: New Right politician Ayelet Shaked said in an interview on Sunday that: “The ultra-Orthodox will have to compromise so that Lieberman will join the right-wing bloc and be able to accomplish things for his constituents.” Shaked reportedly met Lieberman yesterday in an effort to bring him back into the right-wing bloc and briefed media that a compromise could be reached.

• Lieberman has said since the election that he will not compromise on key policies related to religion and state, has no intention of joining a narrow left or right wing bloc and prefers a grand coalition with the Likud and Blue and White party. Yisrael Beitenu’s 8 Knesset seats are vital to help either bloc build a 61 seat majority coalition.
• Talks between the Blue and White party and Likud have failed to make any progress towards a unity government and yesterday’s scheduled meeting was cancelled. Blue and White officials will meet today with Labour Party representatives.
• Netanyahu met yesterday with representatives of the right wing ultra-Orthodox bloc of 55 members of Knesset to ensure they remain united. After the meeting Netanyahu met privately with New Right leader Naftali Bennett and offered to appoint him to a cabinet post to the security cabinet, but Bennett declined.

Looking ahead: Lieberman remains the key figure whose support will make or break any attempt to form a majority Government. Israeli media have speculated that, with a grand coalition looking unlikely, Lieberman has only two options – join a Netanyahu led right wing ultra-Orthodox Government or support a Gantz-led minority Government.

• Blue and White leader Benny Gantz still has two more weeks to form a Government. If he fails, any member of Knesset who can present the endorsement of 61 MKs can have a go. Right now this is looking like an insurmountable task. The resulting deadlock would lead to another election in March 2020.
• The timing of the Attorney General’s announcement whether or not to indict Netanyahu for bribery, fraud and breach of trust is pivotal. He is expected to make that announcement within the next five weeks and that will transform the dynamic of coalition talks.