BICOM

What happened: Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced this morning that between up to 35 Syrian regime soldiers were killed in Turkish airstrikes in retaliation for Assad regime airstrikes on Turkish troops in near Idlib.

• Four Turkish soldiers were killed and nine were wounded in intense shelling by Syrian regime forces early on Monday, the Turkish defence ministry said. Turkish forces retaliated immediately the ministry said, without providing any further details. It added that the Syrian regime’s shelling of the province took place despite prior notification of the coordinates of the Turkish forces in the area.
• President Erdoğan said that Turkish F-16 fighter jets and howitzers carried out attacks against 40 regime targets in Idlib. He added: “We made it clear that we are targeting the Syrian forces because it was them who attacked our Turkish soldiers. We cannot sit on our hands. And, as we speak, our air defences and warplanes are carrying out their respective operations.”
• Erdoğan also noted that Turkish officials had spoken with Russian authorities regarding the situation in Idlib and have told them to avoid confronting Turkish forces in the area during the operation. There are 12 Turkish observation posts that were established as part of a deal signed between Turkey and Russia to prevent Assad regime attacks in Idlib.

Context: The exchange of fire between Turkish and Syrian forces comes amid a new Assad offensive in the country’s Idlib Province.

• Regime forces captured the key town of Maaret al-Numan from the rebels last Wednesday, which forced the Turkish army to send reinforcements into the area to protect Turkish-backed rebels.
• Idlib Province is the last remaining stronghold of rebel forces and is home to 3 million people, many of them displaced from other parts of Syria during the 8-year long civil war. The US has estimated that about 390,000 Syrians have been displaced there over the past two months — 315,000 in December and 75,000 in January.
• In December 2019 President Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey aims to settle one million Syrian war refugees in the area of northern Syria where it carried out a military incursion last October.
• Turkey began its operation in northern Syria on 8 October 2019, two days after US President Donald Trump announced that he was withdrawing US forces from areas of potential conflict in the area. The invasion was justified by President Erdoğan to “prevent the creation of a terror corridor” on the Syrian-Turkish border, but he was forced to suspend the operation after international criticism.
• Although Turkey and Russia agreed to stop acts of aggression and turn Idlib into a de-escalation zone, the Syrian regime has routinely violated the cease-fire, launching frequent attacks inside the de-escalation zone.

Looking ahead: The exchange will increase tensions between Turkey and Syria as such direct clashes have been rare. Turkey will likely view Syrian forces near its observation posts as potential threats and direct confrontations may now increase. The Syrian regime appears to be targeting towns along the strategic highway that links Damascus with northern Syria with the aim to reopen it. The highway has been closed since 2012. How Russia responds to the escalation will be key as to whether both sides agree to a new arrangement in Idlib or engage in direct military conflict.