BICOM has interviewed four experts to get their perspectives on the nuclear deal, Iran’s regional policies, and how to move forward.

Sima Shine was Deputy Director General of Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs and served as head of research at the Intelligence Division of the Mossad. She warns that the JCPoA provides Iran with the legitimacy to become a nuclear threshold state once the agreement ends and that it allows Iran to continue R&D, which allows the nuclear program to continue to advance. Shine believes that there is a real possibility that Trump will actually walk away from the agreement in spite of the people around him who think differently. She believes that in terms of priorities, the most important issue for the international community to deal with is the regional policy of Iran adding that while the Europeans would be open to working with the Trump Administration on this (as they don’t want Trump to walk away from the nuclear agreement), the absence of close relations between the US and Russia makes it difficult to resolve Iran’s regional policy. She also thinks that the Iranians may be able to swallow a change to the sunset clause but feels it is highly unlikely they will agree to inspections to all military sites nor any limitation on their ballistic missiles program (or if they do it will limit their development of missiles that can reach Europe but won’t affect their ability to hit Israel).