BICOM

On Thursday 25 July, Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs Yuval Steinitz was interviewed by BICOM Senior Research Fellow Alan Johnson on the newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The following is an edited transcript of his remarks. To listen to his remarks click here.

Alan Johnson: You’ve called the new Iranian President, Rouhani, a ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’ and warned that a nuclear armed Iran is the equivalent of “40 North Koreas.” In light of that, I wanted to ask you about a story that appeared in Ma’ariv by Ellie Bardanstein. Some members of the Israeli intelligence community visited Europe where they heard some rather worrying noises from their European counterparts indicating that, in light of public reaction to the impression created by the new Iranian President, they may have to bend in quite some way and agree to a new round of talks and possibly a breaking up of what has been quite a solid coalition of the international community until this point. How do you judge the moment we’re at with the new Iranian President and the new mood that’s seeing him as a moderate?

Yuval Steinitz: It’s a very critical moment because the Iranian leadership are eager to use the election of Rouhani in order to ease the pressure on them. You know they want to use it to pave their way to a nuclear bomb. They see it as a tool. I don’t suggest that the Supreme Leader Khameni wanted Rouhani’s victory, but once Rouhani got elected he can say, “Ok now we’re have an advantage and we can use it for our benefit.”

Now Rouhani was very clear about himself, about his image, during the election campaign. He was saying once again, “I am more sophisticated than Ahmadenijad. I have better diplomatic and rhetoric skills. I know how to handle the West. I can ease the sanctions and at the same time preserve our nuclear project.” Actually, when it boils down to it, he was very critical of Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad was stupid enough to be a wolf in a wolf’s clothing. He exposed his teeth unnecessarily and alarmed the United States, Israel and Europe and now they’re suffering from sanctions.

“I can be a wolf in a sheep’s clothing. I have the skills, I have the knowledge, I have the experience.” And many people are unaware of the fact that he published a book two or three years ago, you know about that, the title is something like “Iran’s national security and the nuclear project”. One may wonder what the linkage is; if it’s a totally civilian nuclear project then what’s it got to do with national security?  Well, nevertheless, in this book, it’s saying look how clever I was in 2003 – I understood the threat that we are amidst sanctions, all military actions against our facilities and I was clever enough, I was negotiating with European parties; Britain, France and Germany. Back in 2003 I was national security advisor for Iran. I was smart enough to make minor concessions on the nuclear project that didn’t cause real damage to our nuclear programme. And at the same time that they made those concessions, I accelerated the building of infrastructure and of other things, so that when the sanctions and threat of military operations are over, one year later I could accelerate enrichment.

Actually what he’s saying is “I cheated the West and I can do it again.” So we have to be very careful. We have to come to Iran with a very clear message – no room to play, no room to manoeuvre – you won’t cheat us once again. You have to make a choice, a very difficult choice. Do you want to save the Iranian economy or the nuclear programme? Comply with the UN Security Council resolution which means, stop all enrichment, move the already enriched materials out of Iran and close this facility Qom. You want to proceed with the nuclear programme? You will destroy the Iranian economy and even expose yourself to a military attack on your nuclear facilities. There is no middle way. Don’t come to us with minor gestures, or even your electoral gestures and ask us to reciprocate.

Alan Johnson: Do you think there’s a danger that they will come with minor gestures and will some of the Europeans and even some of the Americans feel they have to respond to that?

Yuval Steinitz: I hope not but I am almost certain that they will try this. Rouhani’s initial attempt will be to manoeuvre. As he said and did in 2003. He’ll come with some gesture or some unilateral concessions or steps and say “Now, I have to get something in return – I have to convince the Iranian people that this way is beneficial. There must be some reciprocity here if you want us to proceed.” Confidence building measures. I do something you do something in return. I think that my impression from my discussion with senior diplomats, including foreign ministers in the recent weeks in Berlin, Paris and here in London is that people understand that this is a real problem and that we have to tell Rouhani “we appreciate your diplomatic skills but we will evaluate you based only on the development on the ground and we won’t ease the sanctions. On the contrary, we will tighten the sanctions unless you give up on the nuclear project. You cannot play with us with minor steps”

But still Rouhani is very sophisticated. He will try to manipulate the media and public opinion in the West – as he’s says in this book, the West almost wants to be cheated.