BICOM

Key points

• Israel recognises that it has very limited capacity to influence the outcome of fighting inside Syria and has set a policy of only intervening when its security interests are immediately threatened.  
• Of primary concern to Israel is the fate of Assad’s arsenal of strategic weapons that under the control of jihadists in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon could be deployed against Israel, in addition to the possible supply of advanced anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, and the stability of the Golan Heights.
• Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that Israel had the right to take actions to protect its own national security.

What has been Israel’s policy in Syria?

• Israel has a limited set of policy options to affect the outcome of the internal conflict raging within Syria. Widespread anti-Israel sentiment in the region has made the shrewdest step for Israel to keep as low as possible a public profile, so as to avoid open hostility with Assad’s forces or adversely impacting the opposition’s standing.
• Israel’s public silence, however, should not be mistaken for tacit support of the Assad regime, which is a key ally of both Hezbollah and Iran and until recently hosted Hamas’ external leadership.
• At the same time, the prospect of Jihadist opposition groups establishing themselves in the Golan Heights, from where they could threaten Israel, is also of concern to Israel.
• With no good outcomes and few policy options available, Israel has adopted a policy of only intervening when actions from within Syria directly threaten its national security. Israel has defined clear red lines including: the transfer of strategic weaponry to Hezbollah or other jihadist groups; the breaching of Israel’s border on the Golan; and the transfer of Russian made S-300 surface-to-air missiles to the Assad regime.
• On the question of whether or not to arm the rebels, there is no formal Israeli position. Though some in Israeli policy circles favour Western efforts to arm more moderate elements of the opposition, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly urged caution in a recent meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron, to avoid weapons falling into the wrong hands.

What are Israel’s concerns in Syria?

The transfer of strategic weaponry

• Whilst the international community is focused on Syria’s chemical weapon stockpile, Israel is no less focused on the regime’s arsenal of other strategic weapons – including sophisticated ground-to-ground, ground-to-air and ground-to-sea missiles, which under the control of jihadists in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon could be deployed against Israel.
• Hezbollah, along with its patron Iran, is deeply invested in the survival of the Assad regime and is committing thousands of its troops to fight against the opposition. Increasingly dependent on Hezbollah’s support, Assad has been attempting to transfer increasingly advanced weaponry to its Shia Lebanese ally.
• On two occasions Israel has reportedly conducted air strikes within Syria. One was to destroy a convoy carrying Russian-made SA-17 man portable anti-aircraft missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the other was targeting sites near Damascus believed to be storing Fateh-110 precision guided surface-to-surface missiles, again intended for Hezbollah.

Russia’s delivery of long-range surface-to-air missiles

• Israel has made clear its opposition to the delivery of sophisticated Russian made S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles from Moscow to Damascus. These missiles have an operational range of nearly 200 km, and represent a ‘game-changing’ threat to Israel’s own air space.
• In early May, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and urged him to cancel the S-300 arms deal, and Israeli security officials have made clear that Israel would intervene to prevent the missile systems becoming operational.
• There is also concern that in the future Assad might transfer the systems to a safer location and a loyal set of hands, such as Hezbollah. From Israel’s point of view, such a development would be an unacceptable escalation.

Destabilisation on the Golan

• As the fighting in Syria continues, the security situation on Israel’s Golan border has gradually been deteriorating. In the first week of June, fighting between opposition forces and Syrian government troops took place in the demilitarised zone at the Quneitra border crossing, only dozens of metres away from Israeli positions.
• Growing numbers of foreign jihadists have deployed in areas close to Israel’s border, and occasionally stray mortar shells and small arms fire from Syria have hit IDF positions.  On one occasion in May the Assad regime claimed responsibility for small arms fire, which hit an Israeli jeep causing damage and injuries.
• A similar deterioration on Israel’s southern border in the aftermath of the toppling of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt led to cross-border terrorism from the Sinai, and Israel is working to prevent the same thing happening on the Golan.
• Israel recently begun constructing a security fence on the Golan border, similar to the one just completed on its southern border with Egypt. Moreover, additional forces and intelligence capabilities have been deployed to the area, and operational plans have been developed for possible cross-border interventions if required.

Where does the UK stand on Israeli security concerns?

• Foreign Secretary William Hague, following reports in May of Israeli airstrikes near Damascus on Iranian missiles on their way to Hezbollah, said, “All countries have to look after their own national security, of course, and are able to take actions to protect their own national security.”