BICOM

­Key Points

• Following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow last week, Russia has postponed delivery to Iran of the S-300 advanced weapon system. Russia’s shifting stance towards Tehran in recent months has led Western diplomats to hope that it will support a tough new set of sanctions against Iran.
• Russia is opposed to a nuclear armed Iran but also has interests in steering a middle course which is not fully aligned with Western preferences and seeks to renew its regional influence. It is unlikely to dramatically alter its cautious approach to Iran before being convinced of receiving political and economic benefits in return.
• Israel is anxious to see effective international diplomatic pressure applied on Iran, and a peaceful resolution of the nuclear stand-off. Netanyahu’s key message in Moscow was that crippling sanctions must be imposed as the “minimal package” that will have a chance of leading Iran to change course regarding its nuclear ambitions.
• Israel and other Western powers attach great importance to winning the Russians over and to achieving the broadest possible consensus to neutralise the Iranian threat.

Introduction

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spent three days in Moscow last week for meetings with Russian leaders. Netanyahu is determined to help generate international resolve to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons diplomatically, and bringing Moscow on board for a new round of tough sanctions is a key goal in Israel and Western countries. A new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran has subsequently sharpened Russia’s focus on the threat. This document looks at the Russian stance towards Iran and Israel’s ongoing concerns in light of the latest developments.

Russia’s position vis-à-vis Iran

Russia has for years been far more equivocal in its approach to the prospect of a nuclear Iran than Britain, France or the US. Of the five permanent member of the UN Security Council, only China traditionally offers greater opposition to the idea of harsher sanctions against the Iranian regime. However, since last September’s revelation of Iran’s secret uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom, Moscow’s change in tone has increasingly led Western diplomats to believe that Russia may support new sanctions. Yet Russia still has some reservations, owing to a range of economic and political interests that govern its relationship with the Iranian regime.

The Kremlin’s cautious approach and preference for ambiguity has been a dominant feature in Russia’s foreign policy for some time. Before the Israeli visit, Russian officials said that they would fulfil a December 2005 contract to supply advanced S-300 air defence missiles to Iran. This was despite repeated calls by the US and Israel for Russia not to go ahead with the £507 million deal, because the transfer could seriously undermine regional stability. Israel sees the weapon system as a ‘game changer’, which would make it much harder to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities as an option of last resort. However, following Netanyahu’s Moscow meetings, Russia announced a delay in delivery, citing unspecified “technical problems,” and giving no indication of when these difficulties would be ironed out.

This decision, in turn, raises Western hopes that Russia will support tougher international sanctions against Iran. Relations between Moscow and Tehran have become strained recently. Russia has questioned the “sincerity” of Iran’s pledges not to be developing nuclear weapons, and said fresh UN sanctions on Tehran were a “realistic” option. It joined the US and France in signing a
letter, dated 12 February, condemning Iran’s decision earlier this month to boost uranium enrichment to levels which experts fear would put Iran on the verge of nuclear breakthrough. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov also
said last Friday that he is “very alarmed” by Iran’s failure to cooperate with the IAEA and prove that its nuclear programme is peaceful. All of this has prompted speculation that Moscow may be closer to acceding to Western demands for new UN sanctions.

Campaigning for effective diplomatic measures

­There is a sense in Israel that events in Iran over the past year – from the disputed presidential election last June and violent crackdown on political opposition, to the uncovering of the Qom plant – have lifted the facade of the Iranian regime and alerted the world to the nature of the threat. Israel has focused its efforts on supporting the international coalition and ensuring broad support for diplomatic action against Iran. Israel has a fine line to tread, because Iran seems intent on escalating tensions, and Israel has no desire whatsoever for a full-scale conflict. So whilst seeking to ratchet up the international diplomatic pressure on Iran to the fullest and widest extent possible, Netanyahu has also clarified that he wants to see a peaceful resolution of the nuclear stand-off.

Netanyahu’s message, which he is seeking to convey the world over, is that ‘watered-down’ sanctions will not suffice in order to avert disaster. However, where Netanyahu urged Russia to support sanctions “with teeth,” including a blockade on energy exports, Lavrov’s deputy, Sergei Ryabko, remarked that Russia “find[s] the term ‘paralysing sanctions’ completely unacceptable.”

But several other developments highlight the need for urgent stringent sanctions. The first relates to the new IAEA report which, as noted above, drew a strong response from the Kremlin. The UN nuclear watchdog’s assessment, published last Thursday, states that Iran’s level of cooperation with the IAEA is decreasing, adding to concerns about the “possible military dimensions” of its nuclear programme. Whilst the findings are not new, the report does contain language that is more directly critical of Iran’s intentions than previous reports. This appears to reflect a tougher approach by the agency under its new Japanese director-general, Yukiya Amano. Furthermore, the Iranian regime’s recent uranium enrichment announcement appears to indicate that Iran no longer seeks to cover up its nuclear ambitions.

Russia and the next stage

The fear among some Israeli observers is that, as has happened in the past when Iran takes a step closer to achieving its nuclear ambitions, calls for more decisive action will not materialise or become diluted in practice. Russia has the potential to play a key role in ensuring that this does not happen this time around.

The US administration, along with its Western allies, is presently pushing for a fourth round of sanctions via the Security Council. The IRGC and is affiliated companies and organisations are expected to be targeted heavily. However, a timeline and details remain diplomatically sensitive, mainly because China, which relies on Iran’s energy exports, is still sceptical about sanctions, and Russian support for specific measures still needs to be firmed up. Israel and other Western powers attach high strategic importance to winning the Russians over; the hope is that it would force Beijing to recalibrate its policy to avoid being out of sync with the rest of the world, choosing to abstain at the UN instead of using its power of veto.

Russia, on balance, wants to notch up the pressure on Iran, with whom it says it is losing patience, but it would still prefer doing so without severing its long-standing links to a valued trading partner. In particular, it is likely to resist a ban on arms sales to Iran, and to try to protect investment in civil nuclear energy, oil and natural gas. Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi, last week tried to make Russia think twice before changing its stance, issuing a veiled threat to bilateral economic ties, including energy cooperation. He warned, “if Russia voted for sanctions, then this process would certainly slow down”. But Iran’s defiance of the international community continues, and Moscow is increasingly opposed to Iran’s defiant nuclear policies. It also wants to be seen as a reliable guarantor of nuclear non-proliferation, and fears that an Iranian nuclear umbrella would undermine its energy interests in the region.

For Israel and Western countries, the price for Russian cooperation over the Iranian issue may be allowing Moscow greater influence on regional diplomacy, including the peace process. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited Russia in late January and supported the idea of a high-level meeting of the Middle East Quartet on Russian soil to discuss renewal of the peace process. In addition, Moscow would like to host a summit once Abbas agrees to resume peace talks with the Israeli government. Russia also attaches importance to its contacts with Hamas: Khaled Ma’ashal, the group’s Damascus-based political leader, visited Russia earlier this month. Whilst Russia’s ties with militant Islamist forces are not welcomed either in Washington or Jerusalem, there has been an improvement over the last year in US-Russia relations, and greater cooperation between Russia and NATO. As such, regional initiatives that involve Russia may be acceptable to the Obama administration and to Europe, especially if they help to further isolate the Iranian regime.

Conclusion

Upon his return from Moscow, Netanyahu claimed that the “gap in understanding” with regard to how the world is seeking to deal with Iran is narrowing. Whilst Moscow may not yet have shifted as far as Western countries would like, they do see movement in the right direction. Russia is unlikely to dramatically alter its cautious, wait-and-see approach to dealing with Iran, at least until it becomes convinced of the broader benefits and reaps any available rewards for doing so. In this regard, US President Obama’s diplomatic skills – and the extent of European support he receives – could be important in persuading the Russians that preventing the emergence of a nuclear Iran is a global security priority which must overshadow regional political and narrow business considerations.