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Analysis

BICOM Analysis: Israel’s internal political crisis – elections on the horizon?

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Executive Summary

Israel’s internal political situation is currently passing through a period of flux and crisis. The precipitating factor for this is the latest investigation into Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Since assuming the prime ministership in early 2006, Ehud Olmert has proved a master of the art of political survival. Yet it is now generally considered in Israel that the prime minister’s departure is only a matter of time. The prospect of the imminent departure of the prime minister has led to a situation of great political uncertainty. The key player in determining the course of events in the next period is Labour leader Ehud Barak. Barak’s decision as to whether to throw his weight behind the push for new elections is likely to determine the survival of the government. But despite his calls for the resignation of the prime minister, Barak has strong political interests in preventing early elections, in which his party would likely be defeated. This article will give an overview of the key events in the current crisis, and will outline a number of possible scenarios for the direction of events in the period to come.

What has happened?

The current crisis began with the announcement of an investigation into claims that PM Olmert had received cash payments of up to $150,000 from an American Jewish businessman, Morris Talansky.[i] Olmert said immediately that he would step down if indicted.[ii] Pressure has been building in recent days, however – particularly from Kadima’s main coalition partner, Labour – for the prime minister to step aside even before the legal investigation reaches the point of an indictment. Last week, matters seemed to be coming to a head. On Wednesday, the prime minister instructed Kadima MKs Tzachi Hanegbi and Eli Aflalo to set a date for the holding of leadership primaries in the party.[iii] No specific date for the primaries was set. The move was seen by analysts as a way for Kadima to placate Labour, in order to preserve the governing coalition and avoid early elections. All polls indicate that the opposition Likud party would win elections if they were held at the present time.

Likud announced on Tuesday, 10 June 2008, that it intended to introduce a no-confidence motion in the Knesset, with the intention of causing the collapse of the coalition and early elections. The hope in Kadima was clearly to conduct an orderly leadership primary involving a minimum of divisiveness, and thus to avoid elections. It remains distinctly possible, however, that PM Olmert hopes to drag out the process until such time as the legal cloud above his head might be lifted, enabling him to compete in the primaries and keep his position. Certainly, he appears unbowed in his determination to stay at his post. Ehud Olmert’s school in political maneuver is acknowledged by even his detractors as impressive, and it is too soon to conclude that it is necessarily all over for him regarding his hopes of remaining at the helm of Kadima and in the Prime Minister’s Office.

The key question now is the attitude of the other Knesset parties, and particularly Labour. For as long as their opposition to the dissolution of the Knesset remained solid, the prospects were reasonable that Kadima would manage to avoid elections. But Labour’s leader was clearly unsatisfied with the announcement in Kadima of primaries at some unspecified future date. Last Thursday, therefore, Ehud Barak announced that Labour would support the Likud no-confidence motion due to have its first reading in the Knesset in the coming days, unless Kadima set a clear date for the holding of the party’s leadership primaries.[iv] Barak is understood to consider that Ehud Olmert is hoping to hold onto the position of prime minister and simply last out the furore over the latest allegations made against him. Barak is therefore determined to pin the Kadima leadership down to a clear date for the holding of leadership elections. The Sephardi ultra-orthodox list Shas has also said that they will support the no-confidence motion.[v] The leftist Meretz party, meanwhile, is echoing Labour’s demand by saying that it will support the no-confidence vote if a clear date for the Kadima primaries is not set. Barak is also understood to be under some pressure from within the Labour Party to bolt the coalition. The dissatisfaction of some Labour MKs goes beyond the issue of the Kadima leadership – taking in sharp differences with Kadima over the planned budget and over socio-economic policy more generally.

Labour Knesset faction head Eitan Cabel, who is seen as representative of the Barak leadership, was unequivocal on the party’s current position: he told reporters last week that “we will not accept any delays and Kadima needs to replace Olmert by the time the summer recess is over. If this does not happen, we will go to [national] elections.”[vi]

A date for the Knesset no-confidence vote introduced by Likud MK Silvan Shalom has not yet been set, but it is likely to take place this week. However, this will be only the first reading of the bill, which needs to be read and voted on three times before becoming law.  Even if it is approved, it is thus possible that the third vote would not take place until the autumn.[vii]

Scenarios for the next period

In essence, there are two possible broad scenarios along which events are likely to develop.

1. In the first scenario, Labour is persuaded not to follow through on its support for the no-confidence motion. The stage would then be set for primaries in Kadima. September has been spoken about as the most likely month for the primaries to take place. Candidates for the leadership of the party are already squaring up against one another. The two favourites are current Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Transport Minister and former Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz.  Livni remains the figure considered most likely to succeed Olmert, and is the most popular among the broader public. However, analysts note that Mofaz, who is the more hawkish, rightist candidate, possesses a far more formidable political machine, which may work to his advantage in a leadership battle. Other candidates likely to enter the leadership contest are Public Security Minister Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit.[viii]

Despite Ehud Barak’s statement on Thursday, this scenario remains conceivable. All available polls indicate that Labour would be highly unlikely to emerge as the single largest Knesset party if elections were held in the current period. Barak returned to politics, and to the Labour leadership, on the explicit premise that he could lead the party to election victory. Failure to do so would be likely to mark the end of his political career. Barak is keen to use his position at the Defence Ministry to position Labour as a centrist party of national security responsibility and pragmatism. He is thought to believe that Kadima led by Tzipi Livni would be uniquely vulnerable to such a challenge because of what he considers to be Livni’s lack of security credentials. But for any of this to happen, it is necessary to prevent elections now.

2. In the second scenario, the no-confidence motion passes, the Knesset is dissolved and an election campaign begins. Primaries within Kadima will then take place in any case, but in the shadow of a general election campaign. As noted, this process could take a number of months, so the elections would probably be set for late 2008/early 2009. As mentioned above, the likely winner would be Likud, who have consistently headed polls since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, (despite winning only 12 seats in the last general elections in March 2006.) Likud lost large number of supporters to Kadima in those elections and will be expecting to win back the greater number of these in a future election.

A recent poll taken by the Dialog agency for Haaretz newspaper showed Likud winning 35 seats in a general election. According to the poll, Labour would win 19 seats (the same as their number in the current Knesset), while Kadima would win only 13.[ix] However, the poll also asked voters how they would vote if Tzipi Livni were leading Kadima. The picture then changed substantially. Likud still came out on top, with 29 seats. But Kadima were next with 23, with Barak’s Labour falling to 15. Interestingly, a Yediot Ahronot poll investigating a similar scenario earlier this month put Kadima victorious with 27 seats, with Likud scoring only 23. This poll remains unique, however, so far – in placing Kadima as the victorious party.[x]

Conclusion

No polls or surveys find the Labour Party as the winner in an imminent general election. Yet it is Barak whose choice will be decisive in deciding now if Israel is to go to general elections. It may well be that if Olmert insists on hanging on, and fudging the issue of the date for the primaries, then the Labour leader may feel that he has no choice but to support the dissolution of the Knesset. If Olmert can be forced aside, however, Labour has the clearest interest of all parties in putting off the elections for as long as possible.


[i] Aviram Zino, “Talansky: Olmert preferred cash to checks,” Ynetnews, 27 May 2008. www.ynetnews.com

[ii] “Israeli PM: I’ll resign if indicted,” CBS News, 8 May 2008. www.cbsnews.com

[iii] Mazal Mualem, “Olmert tells Kadima: Get ready for primaries,” Haaretz, 12 June 2008. www.haaretz.com

[iv] “Half a step in the right direction,” Haaretz, 16 June 2008. www.haaretz.com

[v] Mazal Mualem, “Barak to Kadima: Hold primary soon or we’ll force elections,” Haaretz, 12 June 2008. www.haaretz.com

[vi] Ibid. 

[vii] Ibid. 

[viii] Mazal Mualem, “Kadima chiefs drum up support as primary approaches,” Haaretz, 4 June 2008. www.haaretz.com

[ix] “Likud Surges, main rivals drop in Israel”, Angus Reid Global monitor, 5 June 2008. www.angus-reid.com

[x] “Likud gains strength in Latest voter poll,” Israel National News, 16 June 2008. www.israelnationalnews.com