BICOM

Key Points

• Israel’s government has for the moment chosen not to choose between expanding Operation Cast Lead toward toppling of Hamas in Gaza, or moving rapidly toward a renewed ceasefire. Instead, limited military action is continuing, parallel to attempts to reach an Egyptian-mediated ceasefire with improved conditions for Israel. 
• There are reports of differences of opinion within the security Cabinet – with Prime Minister Olmert depicted as supporting the continuing of the operation, and Defence Minister Barak and Foreign Minister Livni preferring to see it brought now to a close.[i] 
• Prime Minister Olmert at the close of the Cabinet meeting on Sunday warned against losing what had been gained so far in the conflict. Whether the prime minister’s statement precedes an order to escalate to a projected third phase in the operation, or whether it is intended to pressure Egypt to agree to improved arrangements against smuggling is not currently clear. If no progress is made in negotiations with Egypt, and if Hamas’s defiance continues, the launching of a third phase is a real possibility. 

Introduction

Sixteen days into Operation Cast Lead, IDF troops are now operating on the outskirts of Gaza City, the main population center of the Gaza Strip, and the seat of the Hamas government.  On Friday, Israel’s Security Cabinet met to discuss UN Security Council resolution 1860, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Israel did not endorse the resolution, which had already in any case been rejected by Hamas. 

As a result, the Security Cabinet opted to continue with the operation. A limited expansion of the operation is currently taking place, falling short of the full extent of the projected ‘third phase’, which would see Israeli forces moving deep into western Gaza City, the ‘seat’ of the Hamas government of the Strip. 

Thus, Israel’s government has for the moment chosen not to choose between the stark options of expanding the operation toward the possible toppling of Hamas in Gaza, or moving rapidly toward a renewed ceasefire. Instead, limited military action is continuing, parallel to attempts to reach a ceasefire with improved conditions for Israel. This document will look at the dilemmas faced by Israeli decision-makers as they determine Israel’s next steps.

What are the key factors preventing a ceasefire in Gaza?

In the second phase of Israel’s operation, following the air campaign, Israel deployed four brigades in northern Gaza. Hundreds of Hamas gunmen and commanders were killed in the following days. Tunnels used for arms smuggling have been destroyed.  Rocket launching sites have been captured, and consignments of arms discovered. The IDF currently has no remaining major targets in northern Gaza.  However, the Israeli forces remaining in this area now run the risk of vulnerability to Hamas attack. Orders have been given to forces in northern Gaza to shift position and keep mobile to prevent this. The low IDF casualties in northern Gaza indicate that this approach is currently succeeding. [ii]

Israel is endeavouring to obtain Egyptian agreement to the deployment of an international force to prevent smuggling into Gaza. Egypt remains currently opposed to the deployment of such a force. Jerusalem has made clear to Egyptian, US and EU officials that without agreement on the deployment of an international presence on the Egyptian side of the Philadelphi corridor (which separates Gaza from Sinai), or to significantly increased Egyptian efforts in this area, the operation will not be brought to an end.  Israel’s limited incursion into Gaza City appears designed to place pressure upon Cairo to agree to this, as well as to inflict further damage on Hamas’s capabilities. Action against Hamas places pressure also on Egypt because of Egypt’s uncomfortable position vis a vis the Arab world, and its own public opinion. Egypt is currently keeping the Rafah Crossing closed, contrary to Hamas’s wishes. Egypt therefore has an interest in seeing the fighting come to an early end. If the third phase of the operation begins, and this results in an exodus of Palestinians southwards seeking to exit the Gaza Strip, this will place Egypt in a yet more difficult position.  Egypt is particularly concerned to avoid a scenario where it would be obliged to open the its border to Gaza, while the Israeli crossings remain closed. 

Hamas, for its part, has taken a considerable military blow, but this has not yet dented its stance regarding renewing the ceasefire. The movement rejects both the Egyptian Initiative as well as Resolution 1860. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal has made clear that Hamas will not accept any renewed ceasefire deal which does not include the reopening of the crossings between Gaza and Egypt and Gaza and Israel. Movement of goods and people through those crossing was severely restricted by Israel and Egypt following the Hamas coup of July 2007.

Hamas has long believed that its strength lies in what a greater ability to withstand a war of attrition.  Thus, the movement is thought to believe that if it can hold firm in its position, and inflict a steady stream of losses on Israeli forces, this will be sufficient to turn Israeli public opinion against the operation, and to force an Israeli withdrawal. Hamas appears indifferent to loss of life among the civilian population of Gaza, which it has used as cover for its military activities. (It is even reported that the movement’s main command and control center is under Gaza’s largest hospital.[iii]) As a result, the heavy price that would be paid by Gazans for Hamas keeping up the fight poses no dilemma for it. 

According to Israel’s Channel 2 news last night, however, Hamas is split internally.  They reported that Hamas’s Gaza leadership is now demanding that movement leader Khaled Meshaal agree to an immediate ceasefire with no conditions.[iv] Meshaal remains opposed to this, and Israeli media reports suggest that the movement’s backers in Iran are pressuring the Hamas leadership in Syria to stick to a hard line.[v] Hamas representatives are due to arrive in Cairo tomorrow for further talks with the Egyptians. 

Thus, the current situation is one in which diplomatic contacts are continuing, but are not yet near realization. The IDF has commenced operations in Gaza City, but has not yet launched a broad attempt to take the city. Hamas has begun to show signs of internal disunity and has suffered severe losses, but has not yet shown any indications of giving up the fight.   

Reserve units as a ticking clock for Israeli decision making

Israel is approaching a point at which a clear decision regarding the third phase of its operation must be reached. The reservists called up for the operation have completed their pre-combat training at the Tzeelim training base, and some are already being introduced into operations around Gaza City. According to media reports, IDF Southern Command has presented Prime Minister Olmert and Defence Minister Barak with two plans for the carrying out of a broadened ground operation in the southern Gaza Strip. 

Neither plan has yet been approved by the government. The plans are thought to require the participation of thousands of extra troops, and a time frame for the operation of an additional three weeks. If approved, they are expected to see the IDF entering western Gaza City for the first time. In this area is situated the Presidential Palace, the Sariya complex which is considered the seat of government in Gaza, and the Islamic University of Gaza. Rockets, meanwhile, are continuing to fall on Israeli towns – although in significantly fewer numbers.  [vi]

But there are limits to length of time that Israeli reservists, who have left behind jobs and families, can be kept on hold. Some criticism has begun to be heard in Israel because of the sense of indecision.  Former National Security Council Chief, Brigadier General Giora Eiland said over the weekend that, “The army cannot go on like this forever…We need to reach a decision: Either reach a cease-fire in two to three days, or start a big military operation that will take at least two weeks. We’ve been beating around the bush for a week, and we need to make a decision now.” [vii] 

There are also reports of differences of opinion within the Security Cabinet – with Prime Minister Olmert said to be supporting the continuing of the operation, and Defence Minister Barak and Foreign Minister Livni preferring to see it brought now to a close.  Livni, according to media reports, favours concluding the operation without attempting to reach renewed understandings – in order to leave open the possibility of re-commencing it depending on Hamas’s subsequent moves.[viii]

As Prime Minister, Olmert, of course, has the greatest control over the decision making process. In his remarks at the close of the Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Olmert sounded in no hurry to conclude the operation. He said, “We must not, at the last minute, lose what has been achieved in an unprecedented national effort that restored the spirit of unity to the nation. The Israeli public, especially the residents of the south, have the requisite patience and willingness – so does the Government.”[ix]

Conclusion

Whether the Prime Minister’s statement precedes an order to begin the third phase of the military operation, or whether it is intended as a form of brinkmanship to pressure Egypt to agree to improved arrangements against smuggling is not yet clear. The veracity of reports suggesting that Hamas is nearing breaking point and may soon itself agree to an Egyptian ceasefire initiative is of crucial importance. It should be stressed that the carrying out of the third phase of Operation Cast Lead – with all that this implies for the Hamas regime in Gaza – is a real possibility, should it prove impossible to reach adequate understandings regarding smuggling, and should Hamas’s defiance continue. This matter, and the direction of events in Gaza, is likely to be decided upon in the coming days.        

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[i]  Barak Ravid, “Olmert: Gaza war won’t end until rockets and smuggling stop,” Haaretz, 12 January 2009.  http://www.haaretz.com

[ii] Interview with Maj-Gen Yoram Yair, Israel Channel 2 News, 11/1. (Hebrew.)

[iii] Amos Harel, “Sources: Hamas leaders hiding in basement of Israel-built hospital in Gaza,” Haaretz, 12 January 2009.  http://www.haaretz.com

[iv] Ehud Ya’ari, Israel Channel 2 News, 11 January 2009. (Hebrew). 

[v]  Khaled Abu Toameh, “Iran warns Hamas not to accept truce,” Jerusalem Post, 12 January 2009.  http://www.jpost.com

[vi] Barak Ravid, “IDF: Hamas rocket fire down 50% since start of Gaza offensive,” Haaretz, 12 January 2009. http://www.haaretz.com

[vii] Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, “Synching IDF and government over Gaza,” Haaretz, 12 January 2009, http://www.haaretz.com

[viii]  Barak Ravid, “Olmert: Gaza war wont end until rockets and smuggling stop,” Haaretz, 12 January 2009.  http://www.haaretz.com

[ix]  Israeli Government Press Office.