BICOM

On 6 May, BICOM published an Analysis examining how Palestinian reconciliation talks have been evolving. It looked at how a limited Egyptian-brokered understanding between Fatah and Hamas was being considered, based on a confluence of interests between the rival groups, despite the deep, ongoing ideological rift between them. The following is an update on the latest developments.

Key Points

• As President Obama plays host to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, Palestinian unity talks between rival Fatah and Hamas factions have entered a fifth round in Cairo.
• Despite deep divisions between the factions, Egypt has been working hard to forge an agreement which would enable them to cooperate with one another until elections at the beginning of next year.
• A decision by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas last week to defer reaffirming Salam Fayyad’s PA government was a result of bitterness within his own Fatah movement, which is in considerable disarray. The latest crisis within Fatah indicates the extent of the problems faced by Abbas, and the general precariousness of the Palestinian political arena.

Introduction

The focus on US President Barack Obama’s forthcoming meetings with Israeli, Egyptian and Palestinian leaders has naturally led the latest Palestinian talks in Cairo to take a backburner in international coverage of the Middle East.  A fifth round of dialogue between the main factions got underway over the weekend. The aim is to reach understandings between Fatah and Hamas for an interim administration to be established until new elections next January.[i]  The negotiations follow a flurry of political activity in the West Bank last week, which, above all, highlighted the problems faced by Abbas and the multiple divisions at the heart of Palestinian politics.  This analysis looks at the significance of the latest political infighting to have surfaced and Egypt’s perseverance to broker a deal.

Mounting tensions in Palestinian politics

Rival Palestinian leaders in Gaza and the West Bank have been under heightened pressure to form a new unity government since the conflict between Hamas and Israel in January 2009.  Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas stated last Monday, 11 May, that this was his priority. A short term understanding would help secure his position until new elections are held and create a political gateway for reconstruction aid from the international community to reach Gaza. However, at the same time, Abbas announced his intention to reconstitute a West Bank-based Palestinian Authority government within 48 hours, to be led by the current, independent Prime Minister, Salam Fayyad.[ii] Fayyad has led an emergency PA government in the West Bank since the Hamas coup in Gaza in June 2007 ended a short lived Palestinian unity Government. Fayyad announced his resignation in March to facilitate the unity talks between Fatah and Hamas, but since talks were not concluded, he has remained in his post at Abbas’s request. But having announced at the beginning of the week that a new Fayyad government would be established, Abbas did not then proceed with Fayyad’s reappointment as planned.

Hamas leaders have repeatedly stated that a unilateral initiative by Abbas, such as appointing a new government under Fayyad without their agreement, would kill any chance of reconciliation.[iii] But ultimately, it was not them that forced Abbas to postpone. Rather, it was the threat of open revolt from within his own Fatah party. Fatah has strongly objected to a government reshuffle in which key cabinet posts are not filled by its own members.  They want a Fatah-affiliated prime minister and a foreign minister from within their ranks.[iv]  This puts Abbas in a precarious position, because it highlights a gap between his party and the international donor community.  Fayyad’s career in the World Bank and IMF, and his programme for Palestinian political reforms make him by far the most credible and respected candidate for Prime Minister in the US and Europe. The US in particular has made it clear that they do not want to see a Palestinian government led by anyone else.

Fatah may reluctantly accept Fayyad were he to agree to appoint its politicians to senior positions, but in the past Fayyad has refused to form a Fatah-dominated government.  According to Jerusalem Post correspondent Khaled Abu Toameh, senior Fatah figures say they will instigate an “intifada” against Abbas and Fayyad if they are not brought into the PA fold.[v]

Some Fatah activists are also angry with Abbas’s decision to convene the faction’s long overdue sixth “general conference” on 1 July in the West Bank, a move which could prevent many external Fatah leaders from attending.  The last such convention was held twenty years ago, and it is widely viewed in Palestinian circles as critical for reform within the moderate Palestinian camp.  Among other rivalries, the “old guard” who came to the Palestinian Territories from Tunis with Yasser Arafat in 1994 fear losing power to the frustrated, younger generation of Fatah leaders who grew up in the Territories. These internal Fatah tensions are seen by some commentators as the gravest challenge which Abbas has faced since he succeeded Yasser Arafat in January 2005.[vi]

Cairo’s determination to broker an inter-factional deal

That the Cairo dialogue recommenced as scheduled on Saturday, despite the political disunity within the Fatah camp, indicates the degree of pressure to reach a deal, both from the Palestinian population and from the Egyptians.  Predictably, delegates from each side have been leaking accounts of how their flexibility has been unmatched by the other.[vii] But Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif has urged Palestinian leaders to find a breakthrough or face an uncertain future.[viii]  This sentiment is shared throughout the international community, because internal division so severely limits the political horizon.

The most tangible sign of Cairo’s resolve to broker a deal is a reported promise by Omar Suleiman over the weekend to “permanently open [the] Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt if the two movements reach a reconciliation agreement.”[ix]  Hamas has been pressing for the crossing to be opened, but like Israel, Egypt has been unwilling to bolster the Islamist group which it sees as an agent of Iran operating on its border. Hamas has its origins in the Muslim Brotherhood movement, which constitutes the main opposition force to the Mubarak regime within Egypt. Egypt is also particularly sensitive to Iranian influence at the moment after the recent discovery of Iranian backed Hezbollah agents operating in the Sinai. By dangling the Rafah crossing carrot in this way, Egypt is attempting not only to encourage Fatah and Hamas negotiators to put aside their differences, but also to enable the moderate Palestinian Authority to take credit for the benefits of any deal for the people of Gaza.

According to Azzam al-Ahmed, head of the Fatah delegation in Cairo, Suleiman’s message on behalf of Egypt and its Arab allies was that they would not allow the Palestinian dialogue to fail, and that a sixth round would be held in July to finalise an understanding.[x]  To that end, Egypt has helped set up five committees that deal with transitional government formation, issues in reconciliation, security services, election reform, and reform of the PLO.[xi]

Another senior Fatah official, Nabil Sha’ath, announced late Sunday that an agreement to form joint security forces in the Gaza Strip until January has been reached.  This seems contingent upon further progress, as he expanded, “On July 7, the day of the signing of the final agreement, a committee of Egyptian and Arab officers would go to Gaza to supervise the rebuilding of Palestinian security forces.”[xii] Some advances were reportedly made on PLO reform at earlier talks. The crunch issue remains the formation of a joint governing body for the West Bank and Gaza.

Both sides have been reviewing an Egyptian proposal for an interim umbrella ‘committee’ that would serve until elections. This would be a looser structure than a unity government, theoretically enabling the sides to bypass deeply conflicting policy positions and visions, though in practice it would undoubtedly be fragile. Stark differences between the factions – in particular Hamas’s unwillingness to accept international demands on recognition of Israel, renunciation of violence and acceptance of previous agreements – would remain unresolved. These issues are not on the agenda in Cairo, because Egypt knows they are currently unbridgeable.

Conclusion

The political infighting within Fatah which surfaced last week, and Mahmoud Abbas’s decision not to carry out his promise to establish a new government in the West Bank under Salam Fayyad, has highlighted the political challenges facing the Palestinian President. One factor which may give him a boost is his upcoming visit to Washington. Obama’s focus on the Middle East over the coming weeks, including a much anticipated speech to the Arab world in Cairo on June 4, is reverberating throughout Palestinian and regional politics. The factions may prefer to fudge the Cairo talks until the next round at the beginning of July in order to see how the tone shifts. As things stand, whether or not a temporary unity deal is eventually reached, major differences over the future of the Palestinian national movement look set to remain unresolved, limiting the scope of the Palestinian diplomatic process with Israel.

 

 

 

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[i] ‘Amid political uncertainty Hamas and Fatah travel to Cairo for fifth round of talks’, Ma’an News Agency, 15 May 2009.

[ii] Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu, ‘Abdullah Tells Netanyahu in Amman: Accept PA State ‘Immediately”, Israel National News, 14 May 2009.

Abbas originally appointed Fayyad in June 2007, following Hamas’s violent takeover of Gaza which led to the collapse of the unity deal that had been reached in Mecca earlier that year.

[iii] For instance, Hamas spokesman Ismail Radwan last week said that “forming an expanded government is as good as placing a timed bomb in the way of the dialogue.”  ‘Amid political uncertainty Hamas and Fatah travel to Cairo for fifth round of talks’, Ma’an News Agency, 15 May 2009.  See also Ali Waked, Fatah unrest scraps new gov’t plans, YNet News, 14 May 2009.

[iv] One of the preferred Fatah candidates for foreign minister is Yasser Arafat’s nephew and former PLO ambassador to the UN, Nasser al-Kidwa.  See Ali Waked, op. cit.

[v] Khaled Abu Toameh, ‘Fear causes Abbas to delay new gov’t’, Jerusalem Post, 14 May 2009; ‘Abbas postpones Hamas-less gov’t amid internal rebellion’, Israel Today, 15 May 2009.

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] See, for instance, comments at the end of the opening day of talks by Ezat Al-Rashq, a member of the Hamas delegation, and those by Azzam al-Ahmed, heading the Fatah delegation.  Muhammed Yamany, ‘New round of Hamas-Fatah talks start in Cairo’, Xinhua, 17 May 2009.  ‘Egypt vows to save unity dialogue, ‘whether they like it or not’, Ma’an News Agency, 17 May 2009.

[viii] Mohammad Ben Hussein, ‘Palestinian rivals urged to agree on unity government’, The Jordan Times, 16 May 2009.

[ix] ‘Egypt demands Palestinian reconciliation deal to be reached in July’, Xinhua, 17 May 2009.

[x] Ibid.

[xi] ‘Amid political uncertainty Hamas and Fatah travel to Cairo for fifth round of talks’, Ma’an News Agency, 15 May 2009.

[xii] Chen Gongzheng, ‘Fatah, Hamas to establish joint forces in Gaza’, Xinhua, 17 May 2009.